Bob, there is a big issue for the bear case for me, with crude.
It is a global market and Russia is a big supplier, awa some of its former republics. Appears to be a lot of unrest and potential instability in those areas. Very unpredictable. Seems like a lot of new and recent squabbles popping up in Asia awa eastern Europe. Old scores still unsettled?
If kaos were to happen, and a lot of that supply get shut in, the price would rocket. It certainly is not impossible to happen within Russia as well, things don't seem kosy there. So this lies in the back of my mind.
No big bets on the short side yet for me Bob, just a small entry so far.
RE the maintenance comments, I would question. Pretty familiar with all that. Years ago time based maintenance was the religious norm, like annual maintenance. Not as much anymore, condition based maintenance has been the norm now for quite a spell. With this approach work is done when/if needed, and each major case is evaluated on its own merit. The goal is to get more uptime, less downtime. So I take the 'experts' assessments with a grain of salt. I probably have spent more time in refineries than most of those folk.
A bit dated from the data dog. Last I checked crude was still back. Have not looked for a few months. In edit ... yes still back.
mcoscillator.com
It is of value imo to assess bull and bear sides, awa sentiment. Counts are counts subject to error.
We're in full agreement on Cohu, which I landed yesterday near LOD. Got my fills.
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