Here’s a look at which states found themselves in the most tropical cyclone forecast cones in 2023North Carolina found themselves in 56 cones during the 2023 season. Parts of Maine were in cones of concern at least 44 times.
October 7, 2023
A look at the tropical cyclone threat map of 2023 shows some expected areas topping the list for being in the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone the most often, but there are also some surprising statistics as the season enters the home stretch.
Cones for potential tropical cyclones, tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes are issued four times a day by the NHC. So far, North Carolina has topped the list for being placed in the cone of concern the most often with 56 occurrences, but states like Maine, California - and even Nevada aren’t too far off.
Some communities in Maine have been in a cone 44 times, with forecast cones reaching California and Nevada 35 and 34 times, respectively. Oregon at 13 cone placements tops Texas at 11, so far, thanks to some early forecasts from Tropical Storm Hilary in the Pacific Ocean in August.
States not seeing any activity during the 2023 season include Louisiana and Mississippi, which have been focal points during many recent seasons. Louisiana was hit by four named storms in the season of 2020 and had devastating Hurricane Ida in 2021.
Tropical cyclone cones by state in 2023
(FOX Weather)
Impacts don't stay inside the coneJust because a community finds itself inside the cone, it does not mean impacts are limited to just the highlighted area - effects from systems stretch hundreds and impact areas well away from where the center travels.
At a forecast cone’s widest point, the path where the center may travel is around 235 miles wide, which, in comparison, is about the entire immediate coastline of Maine.
As time advances closer to landfall, the narrowest point is only about 30 miles wide, but again, the impacts can be felt well away from the forecast cone.
Hurricane forecast cone changes for the 2023 season.
(FOX Weather)
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Florida, which is often known as the hurricane capital, has only found itself cone of concerns 31 times this season, which is closer to the middle of the pack.
October is the month when the Sunshine State can rack up several tropical weather threats, so it would not surprise forecasters to see the state’s total rise as systems develop in the nearby Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
The lack of tropical trouble impacting the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard is representative of the general pattern that has been in charge for most of the 182 days that make up the hurricane season.
The year has generally lacked a Bermuda ridge, which has allowed systems to feel the natural poleward pull and prevent a westward progression.
Years such as 2022, 2019, 2017 and others have featured a more dominant westward ridge, allowing systems to threaten more of the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast.
Tropical cyclone forecast cones issued in 2023
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For some coastal communities, the likelihood of being in additional forecast cones is over as troughs and cold fronts help dictate where tropical threats exist during the remaining month and a half of the season.
Florida and North Carolina are the only states that have experienced direct hurricane strikes during November.
The 2023 season will conclude a week after Thanksgiving on Nov. 30. |
