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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends
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From: humble110/18/2023 6:11:54 PM
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rdkflorida2

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Powell is set to speak at noon ET Thursday at the Economic Club of New York. This could be a biggie. A real biggie:

“Powell is always tacking back to whatever helps feed the narrative that they need to stay vigilant, and for understandable reasons,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I just expect him to keep talking about the strength of the economy and the surprising strength of the consumer in the third quarter as a risk for inflation. That is enough ammunition to keep talking about staying vigilant.”

Essentially, Tilley expects the Powell message to break into three parts: The Fed needed to get rates high quickly, which it did; that it had to find a peak level, which is part of the current debate; and that it needs to figure out how long rates need to stay this high to get inflation back to its 2% target.

“Really, their ultimate goal is to keep financial conditions tight so inflation comes down,” he said. “He’s going to use that framework, even if he’s dovish about Nov. 1 (the next Fed rate decision) or December to shift the hawkishness to that third question of how long to keep them this high.”

I want him to hint at QT wind down. But recognizing that conditions are quite tight especially in the treasury market would do it. TWT!
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