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Politics : Military Strategy Board
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To: bull_dozer who wrote (12846)10/19/2023 6:46:13 PM
From: bull_dozer3 Recommendations

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Hugh Bett
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Israel + Ukraine War Mega-Update

Many people point to Israel’s comparatively massive army, with over 300,000+ reserves reportedly called up. But one must recall that Israel has a unique system: one of the only countries in the world where men and women are both drafted equally for mandatory conscription—this is why you see such a prevalence of female Israeli TikTok soldiers.

Thus the official statistic is that 40% of Israel’s conscript force are female soldiers—so how much of their large army is actually combat capable, it’s hard to know, but probably not commensurate with Hezbollah fighters on a one to one basis.

The other announcement is that the White House is very “concerned” about Israel’s lack of strategy related to a Gaza assault, and wants the settlement to be more “political.” The amount of aid is said to be held up partly due to this. There are several factors to this:

U.S. military planners likely know an IDF incursion into Gaza could be a trap that will turn into a massive mire for Israel, forcing U.S. to expend inordinate amounts of money and materiel to assist

U.S. further knows that once this mire activates and the civilian casualties start going up week over week, the chance of a wider war greatly increases as Hezbollah/Iran may be forced to enter and U.S. will be forced to act in order to save face. But not everyone in the U.S. may be eager for this because they know that this could be part of a much wider trap which includes China and Russia and could lead to a large scale humiliation and prestige loss for the U.S.

The U.S. knows that global sentiment is drastically turning against it and the West in general. To create another ongoing bloodbath in Gaza would mean the U.S. may lose critical support and geopolitical influence.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-101823-israel-ukraine-war
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