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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (82293)10/22/2023 10:37:12 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical2 Recommendations

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ajtj99
catou1

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All of your targets are reasonable and maybe they happen. I will continue to take things day by day. Last friday (and during part of last week) we started to see noticeable outperformance to the downside of the mega cap crowded trade club. Usually this occurs towards the end of a move because these are the new utilities and safe havens (laughable) and people only sell these when forced.

We've had the inflation is slowing rally (BS), and then the Fed is on hold rally, but we have yet to see a good rally based upon the Fed cutting as it's next move. I don't see 4 weeks down like that on the megacaps until we've had one last rally based on the cutting narrative. Again all of this is for fun. My portfolio is not very correlated to the S&P.

None of us really knows where the 10 year/rates are going. Many have speculated that the US simply has too much debt for the world to absorb for a while now. With Japan and China trying to support their currencies perhaps we are finally there. Is gold rallying due to geopolitical concerns or debt funding concerns? I don't know, probably a bit of both.

GOOGL, META and AMZN could still give overall decent guidance. But from a rate of change standpoint things are still slowing and these are still over owned. Short term is very unpredictable, but IT still looks like this entire rally was one giant head fake.

Eventually the FED will create enough deflation again (by design) such that they can crush rates lower and enable this ponzi scheme to continue a while longer. They have no other option (at least politically). I have no idea when this transition will happen again, but looks likely during the next 12 months or less.

Most of my shorts are varried by sector and I'm only very selectively short tech now, but there will come a time soon where XLK or even the QQQs will be the best game in town (risk adjusted, short).
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