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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (82391)10/24/2023 2:36:02 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III1 Recommendation

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ajtj99

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I'm having a brain fart on the formula or something. It tracks as expected short term but then acts like when the market drops, we have deflation etc, it "catches up" and decreases the gap.

I can't get inflation data by month going back far enough so I'm using annual data. You can't divide a percentage so as a work around, I'm trying to take the difference between the present SPX close, subtract the year ago close to get the gain/loss then multiply the inflation rate to one minus the inflation rate to get the inflation adjusted gain/loss and then add that to the year ago result to get the new inflation adjusted number.

Like I said, it is lower than as printed SPX level but it isn't compounding as expected and catches up closing the gap every time we have a market correct or a negative inflation print.

Maybe someone here can spot my error. Here is a screen shot of my spreadsheet. I highlighted the dates and the cells for the adjusted SPX being used. I selected January for ease of identification. Not the formula in the excel window.......



If somebody can help. I'd appreciate any help.

Here are a couple examples of on a smaller time scale, you can see it is trying to work but isn't compounding correctly or something.......



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