Market Snapshot
briefing.com
| Dow | 32784.30 | -251.63 | (-0.76%) | | Nasdaq | 12595.60 | -225.62 | (-1.76%) | | SP 500 | 4137.23 | -49.54 | (-1.18%) | | 10-yr Note | +30/32 | 4.85 |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1475 | Dec 1327 | Vol 1.0 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1975 | Dec 2315 | Vol 4.9 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Real Estate, Utilities, Materials |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Staples |
Moving the Market
-- Rates drop in reaction to this morning's slate of economic data, but stocks did not respond favorably
-- Relative weakness in the mega cap stocks
-- Geopolitical worries after Israeli PM Netanyahu says his country is "preparing for a ground invasion"
-- Digesting a heavy batch of earnings news
| Closing Summary
26-Oct-23 16:30 ET
Dow -251.63 at 32784.30, Nasdaq -225.62 at 12595.60, S&P -49.54 at 4137.23
[BRIEFING.COM] Today's trade ended on a downbeat note. The biggest factor driving index level price action was relative weakness in the mega cap space. Meta Platforms (META 288.35, -11.18, -3.7%) logged a sizable decline after reporting better-than-expected earnings and relatively disappointing guidance. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (MGK) fell 2.1% while the market-cap weighted S&P 500 fell 1.2%.
Market participants were also digesting a heavy news flow that included a slate of earnings reports, Israel staging a raid on Gaza in preparation for next stages of the war, Ford (F 11.35, -0.19, -1.7%) and the UAW reaching a tentative agreement, the ECB leaving its corridor of key interest rates unchanged following ten consecutive rate increases, and a batch of economic data before the open.
The economic news featured a whopping 4.9% real GDP growth in the third quarter, stronger-than-expected durable goods orders in September, and an initial jobless claims total (210,000) that suggested the labor market is still not showing any material weakness.
Treasury yields moved lower in response to the data, but stocks did not react positively to that development. The 2-yr note yield fell seven basis points to 5.05% and the 10-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 4.85% following a strong $38 billion 7-yr note auction today.
The S&P 500 fell to 4,127 at today's low, which was a 10% pullback from the July 31 closing level. Buyers showed up there, however, to offer some support and help the major indices climb off session lows. The bounce stalled out, though, with about an hour left in the session. Renewed selling activity had the S&P 500 close just above "correction" territory.
Still, the broader market was showing signs of resilience. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) logged a modest 0.2% decline and the A-D line was positive at the NYSE. Also, the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 registered gains of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.
Some notable names that reported earnings since yesterday's close were able to outperform the broader market. IBM (IBM 143.76, +6.68, +4.9%), Merck (MRK 105.55, +1.92, +1.9%), W.W. Grainger (GWW 699.97, +22.26, +3.3%) were among the standouts in that regard.
- Nasdaq Composite: +20.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +7.8% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.1% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -3.0% YTD
- Russell 2000: -5.9% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Weekly Initial Claims 210K (Briefing.com consensus 210K); Prior was revised to 200K from 198K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.790 mln; Prior was revised to 1.727 mln from 1.734 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that the level of initial jobless claims does not suggest the labor market is weakening in a material way at this juncture.
- September Durable Orders 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%; September Durable Goods - ex transportation 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.4%
- The key takeaway from the report is that business spending continued to increase, evidenced by the 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft.
- Q3 GDP-Adv. 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior 2.1%; Q3 Chain Deflator-Adv. 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%); Prior 1.7%
- The key takeaway from the report is that the Q3 GDP report was nearly every bit as much as what the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimated it would be (5.4%), which is to say economic activity surged in the third quarter on the back of the consumer, shedding some objective light on why the Fed remains inclined to keep rates high for longer.
- September Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$85.8 bln; Prior was revised to -$84.6 bln from -$84.3 bln
- September Adv. Retail Inventories 0.9%; Prior 1.1%
- September Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.0%; Prior -0.1%
- September Pending Home Sales 1.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior -7.1%
Friday's economic calendar features:
- 8:30 ET: September Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.4%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), and Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.1%)
- 10:00 ET: Final October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 63.1; prior 63.0)
Market turns lower ahead of the close
26-Oct-23 15:30 ET
Dow -139.65 at 32896.28, Nasdaq -168.56 at 12652.66, S&P -34.02 at 4152.75
[BRIEFING.COM] The market is drifted somewhat lower.
Treasuries settled with gains across the curve. The 2-yr note yield fell seven basis points to 5.05% and the 10-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 4.85%.
After the close, Amazon.com (AMZN), Ford (F), Intel (INTC), Capital One (COF), L3Harris (LHX), Mohawk (MHK), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Enphase Energy (ENPH), and Boston Beer Co (SAM) all report earnings.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), Charter Comm (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), AutoNation (AN), and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) are among the earnings reporters ahead of Friday's open.
Energy complex settles mixed
26-Oct-23 15:05 ET
Dow -57.45 at 32978.48, Nasdaq -130.04 at 12691.18, S&P -21.69 at 4165.08
[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices continue to climb. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down just 0.2% now.
Energy complex futures settled mixed. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.7% to $83.06/bbl and natural gas futures rose 6.6% to $3.21/mmbtu. The S&P 500 energy sector (-0.7%) is near the bottom of the pack alongside information technology (-1.4%) and communication services (-1.7%) sectors.
Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 is up 0.7% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 is up 1.0%.
Whirlpool, Hasbro slide on earnings; Willis Towers Watson atop the S&P 500 after Q3 beat
26-Oct-23 14:30 ET
Dow -154.12 at 32881.81, Nasdaq -202.85 at 12618.37, S&P -40.05 at 4146.72
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.96%) is in second place once more on Thursday, down about 40 points and off session lows from the prior half hour.
S&P 500 constituents Whirlpool (WHR 105.74, -19.87, -15.82%), Hasbro (HAS 48.50, -6.25, -11.42%), and Western Digital (WDC 38.16, -4.02, -9.53%) dot the bottom of the standings. WHR and HAS slip on earnings/guidance, while WDC is lower driven by on two-pronged front -- peer Seagate (STX 66.50, -0.60, -0.89%) missed expectations on guidance and forecasted weak memory chip demand, while the company was also the subject of a Nikkei report suggesting talks between WDC's memory business and Kioxia had broken down.
Meanwhile, insurance firm Willis Towers Watson (WTW 230.99, +23.25, 11.19%) is atop the index following this morning's Q3 beat.
Gold holds up despite stronger dollar
26-Oct-23 14:00 ET
Dow -186.54 at 32849.39, Nasdaq -216.62 at 12604.60, S&P -42.21 at 4144.56
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-1.69%) is still today's top laggard, down about 217 points.
Gold futures settled $2.50 higher (+0.1%) to $1,997.40/oz as diving yields helped to offset some of the pressure from a stronger greenback.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.2% to $106.77.
Page One
Last Updated: 26-Oct-23 09:07 ET | Archive
As good as it gets?
There isn't adequate time and space to cover in detail what has transpired since yesterday's close, so we will take the nutshell route here.
- There has been a flood of earnings news, including results from Dow components IBM (IBM), Merck (MRK), and Honeywell (HON). Those results, however, have been largely overshadowed by a report and outlook from Meta Platforms (META) that has undercut its stock.
- Israel conducted a raid on Gaza to prepare for the "next stages" of war.
- The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected, after ten consecutive increases.
- Ford (F) and the UAW have reached a tentative agreement on a new contract.
- The 10-yr note yield flirted again with 5.00%.
- There have been four economic releases ahead of the open: the Advance Q3 GDP Report, Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, September Durable Goods Orders, and the September Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories Report (more on these in a bit).
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 75 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average future are up nine points and are trading in-line with fair value.
That's a stark improvement from earlier when things looked a lot worse, but Treasury yields took a turn lower after the release of the aforementioned data. It is a peculiar move given that the data were generally good. In fact, the Q3 GDP report was phenomenal from a growth standpoint. Alas, the 10-yr note yield, at 4.97% ahead of the releases, has dropped to 4.91% in their wake.
Looking at the data (in a nutshell):
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%) following a 2.1% increase in the second quarter. Personal spending jumped 4.0% and accounted for 2.69 percentage points of growth. The GDP Chain Deflator was up 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%) following a 1.7% increase in the second quarter.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the Q3 GDP report was nearly every bit as much as what the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimated it would be, which is to say economic activity surged in the third quarter on the back of the consumer, shedding some objective light on why the Fed remains inclined to keep rates high for longer.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 21 increased by 10,000 to 210,000 (Briefing.com consensus 210,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 14 increased by 63,000 to 1.790 million.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the level of initial jobless claims does not suggest the labor market is weakening in a material way at this juncture.
- Durable goods orders jumped 4.7% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.4%) in August.
- The key takeaway from the report is that business spending continued to increase, evidenced by the 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft.
- The Advance Intl. Trade in Goods deficit widened to $85.8 billion in September from $84.6 billion in August. Advance Retail Inventories increased 0.9% on the heels of a 1.1% increase in August. Advance Wholesale Inventories were flat after declining 0.1% in August.
The equity futures market is tracking the Treasury market, which is perhaps being governed by some short-covering activity after what we would consider to be a round of pretty solid economic data. Accordingly, one needs to be on the lookout for a reversal of the knee-jerk action.
We can only surmise that the Treasury market is operating under the assumption that this is as good as it will get growth-wise for a long time, so it is pressing some bets on the peak rate theory. In any case, the initial response has made a huge difference for the equity market, which was staring at much larger losses at the open prior to the release of the data.
-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
KLA Corporation retreats from earlier gains; echoes peers' remarks about stabilizing demand (KLAC)
KLA Corporation's (KLAC) shares are retreating from initial excitement following the semiconductor equipment supplier's healthy Q1 (Sep) results, including its 11th straight double-digit earnings beat and decent revenue upside. Additionally, the midpoints of KLAC's Q2 (Dec) earnings and revenue forecasts topped consensus. However, the sell-off across the broader market indices is weighing on KLAC, eclipsing its otherwise decent Q1 numbers.
- Given tough yr/yr comparisons, headline numbers still contracted yr/yr, but by less than analysts feared. Adjusted EPS fell 18.7% yr/yr to $5.74 while revs dropped 12.0% to $2.40 bln.
- Notably, CEO Richard Wallace commented that the business environment remained relatively stable during the quarter, observing strength in markets served by legacy nodes (long-established technology used across most components). Semiconductor firms have repeatedly touched on the accelerating chip content increase across numerous products and verticals. KLAC remains confident that this trend will continue over the long haul.
- A stabilizing demand environment also echoed remarks last week from peer Lam Research (LRCX).
- On the flip side, newer, evolving technologies, i.e., memory, leading edge, logic, and foundry, continue experiencing softness. KLAC mentioned that it keeps a close eye on the state of the electronics market, making adjustments to stay in line with customers' capacity.
- While product revs deal with macroeconomic weaknesses, posting a 16% drop in revenue to $1.84 bln in Q1, service revenue remains buoyant, growing 6% to $560 mln. KLAC reiterated that its service business remains on track for high-single-digit percentage growth yr/yr in CY23.
- New U.S.-imposed export restrictions on AI chips to China added uncertainty ahead of KLAC's Q1 report. Management did not dive into how the first half of FY24 (Jun) could shake out regarding regions or customers driving demand. Instead, KLAC repeated that the overall environment is stabilizing but remains highly fluid.
- A steady demand backdrop trickled into KLAC's Q2 outlook, projecting adjusted EPS of $5.26-6.46 and revs of $2.325-2.575 bln. Clearly, KLAC is not removing the possibility of results ticking moderately lower sequentially. However, with the midpoints of both ranges indicating decent qtr/qtr growth, the company appears to be leaning more optimistic.
Bottom line, Q1 results were solid, sufficient in avoiding taking part in today's fragile markets. However, the economic picture has evolved since last quarter, looking more cautionary as we approach 2024. Micron (MU) already warned that a recovery in wafer fab equipment spending could take longer than initially thought. Still, stabilizing conditions are a good sign that recovery remains underway, albeit at a potentially more sluggish pace.
Honeywell delivers solid results on aerospace strength, but performance falls short of GE's (HON)
Riding the same boom in the commercial airline industry that competitor General Electric (GE) leaned on to deliver an impressive beat-and-raise Q3 report on Tuesday, Honeywell (HON) beat 3Q23 earnings estimates and issued Q4 guidance that was in line with expectations. HON's stock, though, isn't receiving the same level of enthusiasm that greeted GE's stock following that company's earnings report as HON's performance and outlook isn't nearly as strong.
- For instance, HON's overall Q3 revenue growth of about 3% lags GE's growth of about 20% by a wide margin. This is mainly due to GE's Aerospace segment generating a larger percentage of total sales relative to HON's.
- Specifically, in Q3, revenue from GE Aerospace accounted for roughly 49% of total revenue, while HON's Aero segment accounted for roughly 38% of total sales.
- Growth was also stronger for GE's Aerospace segment at +25% compared to +18% for HON Aero.
- HON's other primary segments -- Honeywell Building Technologies (HBT), Performance Materials & Technologies (PMT), and Safety & Productivity Solutions (SPS) -- are generating much slower growth than Aero. In fact, SPS saw organic revenue dive by 25% yr/yr, while revenue was flat on a yr/yr basis for HBT.
- SPS is experiencing weak demand for warehouse automation projects and HBT is being negatively impacted by lower security product demand.
- Considering the factors above, it makes sense that GE provided a more bullish outlook for FY23 than HON. While GE lifted its EPS guidance to $2.55-$2.65 from $2.10-$2.30, HON merely tightened its guidance range to $9.10-$9.20 from its prior forecast of $9.05-$9.25.
The main takeaway is that the drop in HON shares today is more a function of its relatively softer results compared to GE, and just the weakness in the broader markets. Overall, though, HON is performing well, especially considering the tough macroeconomic conditions. Supply chain improvements are enabling greater volumes in defense and space, while healthy demand for jet engines, avionics systems, and power systems is driving solid growth on the commercial aircraft side. These trends are expected to continue into FY24, while the potential for an expanding conflict in the Middle East could support stronger growth in the defense and space business.
IBM trades nicely higher following Q3 beat; Software and Consulting segments lead the way again(IBM)
IBM (IBM +5%) is trading higher today after reporting a nice EPS beat in Q3 while revenue was in-line. Investors were also pleased to see IBM reaffirm its FY23 free cash flow outlook of $10.5 bln and to reaffirm its FY23 outlook for constant currency (CC) revenue growth to +3-5%. However, IBM did say it would be prudent to assume the low end of that +3-5% range.
- IBM's performance was once again led by Software (+6.3% CC) and Consulting (+5.0% CC) as clients continue to accelerate their digital transformations, modernize their applications and automate their workflows. These segments are growth vectors that together represent about 75% of IBM's revenue and contribute to a solid base of recurring revenue and profit.
- Within Software, IBM had good growth in both its subsegments: Hybrid Platform & Solutions (+7% CC) and Transaction Processing (+5% CC) revenue. In HP&S, IBM saw growth across Red Hat, Automation, and Data & AI. Red Hat revenue was up +8% CC as IBM saw good growth in OpenShift and Ansible, both gaining share again this quarter. Automation revenue grew +13% CC with pervasive growth across all business areas.
- Consulting had another solid quarter with a strong signings performance and a book-to-bill ratio greater than 1.15. IBM says it's capitalizing on momentum in the market as it helps clients get value from hybrid cloud and AI and leverage its strategic partnerships.
- Its Infrastructure segment was the laggard once again with (-3.2% CC) revenue declining yr/yr. This segment ebbs and flows more on product launches and IBM is now in the sixth quarter since the very successful launch of z16 in 2Q22. Clients are embracing IBM Z in their hybrid cloud environments, especially in regulated industries. This growth was offset by declines in Distributed Infrastructure and Infrastructure Support.
- Looking ahead, IBM still expects Software segment revenue growth at the high end of its mid-single-digit model and Consulting revs in the 6-8% range. Infrastructure still reflects product cycle dynamics. In terms of Q4, IBM sees currency to be neutral to a 1-point headwind. IBM expects total CC revenue growth in Q4 to be similar to Q3 despite a tough compare from last year's strong ELA contribution in Software and the large z16 transactional performance in Infrastructure.
Overall, investors seem quite pleased with IBM's Q3 report. We think the highlights are the solid EPS beat and the reaffirmation of the FCF guidance. In the first nine months, IBM has posted FCF of $5.12 bln, which means Q4's FCF will be huge at around $5.4 bln. Granted, Q4 is a seasonally strong quarter for FCF, but we think that bodes well for the FY24 FCF guidance we can expect when IBM reports Q4 results in late January. Finally, the stock has been pulling back over the past month. As such, we think sentiment was on the low side heading into this report and that helps explain today's move.
Meta Platforms' cautious outlook adds to concerns that Middle East turmoil will impact growth (META)
Meta Platforms' (META) playbook of keeping a lid on costs while bolstering AI capabilities to improve ad targeting and ROI for advertisers produced strong results yet again in Q3 as the company cruised past EPS and revenue expectations. A rebound in advertising spending that helped drive upside earnings reports from Google (GOOG) and Snap (SNAP) also provided a boost, as reflected by META's 23% revenue growth -- its strongest yr/yr increase in two years.
However, a cautious revenue outlook for Q4, coupled with the expectation that capital expenditures will increase next year, is casting a cloud over the upside results and sending shares sharply lower.
- Specifically, the company guided for revenue of $36.5-$40.0 bln, which represents a slowdown in growth to 19% at the midpoint of the range. Furthermore, during the earnings call, CFO Susan Li warned that the turmoil in the Middle East seems to be leading to a softer ad market, pointing to the conflict in Ukraine as a recent example of how a geopolitical issue created headwinds.
- Meanwhile, META forecasted FY24 capital expenditures of $30-$35 bln and total expenses of $94-$99 bln. Assuming that capital expenditures and total expenses come in at the midpoints of their guidance ranges for FY23 and FY24, this guidance would equate to yr/yr capital expenditure and total expense growth of 16% and 10%, respectively.
- With shares surging by nearly 150% on a year-to-date basis, there was little room for error heading into the report. Therefore, this combination of slowing revenue growth and rising costs is more than enough to elicit a selloff in the stock.
- Adding to market participants' concerns is the ongoing losses for the Reality Labs segment. The division, which markets META's virtual reality products, such as the recently launched Quest 3 headset, continues to struggle with sluggish sales.
- After diving by 37% last quarter, revenue fell by 26% in Q3 to $210 mln, leading to a staggering operating loss of $3.7 bln.
- Divesting this unprofitable business would seem to make sense and would likely be a catalyst for the stock, but Mark Zuckerberg's long-term vision still centers on building out the metaverse, so investors will have to endure more large losses for Reality Labs.
- On the positive side, Reels, META's short-format video app, is growing quickly and monetization is improving. In fact, META estimated that Reels is now net neutral to overall company ad revenue.
The main takeaway, though, is that rising geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties are threatening to reverse the progress that the ad market has made over the past few quarters. Although META still expects solid high-teens growth in Q4, the more cautious tone and outlook has investors locking in profits on a stock that has generated incredible gains over the past year.
Whirlpool circles the drain, sinking toward pandemic lows following reduced FY23 EPS guidance (WHR)
Whirlpool (WHR -13%) shares are circling the drain today, sinking to May 2020 levels despite clearing analyst earnings and sales expectations in Q3. The culprit today was reduced FY23 earnings guidance. The household appliance manufacturer removed the high end of its previous $16.00-18.00 adjusted EPS forecast, now anticipating approximately $16.00. Making the slashed outlook worse is that WHR blew analysts' Q3 earnings projections out of the water, registering a triple-digit beat for the first time since 3Q20, translating to a much cooler Q4.
What happened? Promotional activity is reverting to pre-pandemic levels, i.e., intensifying, quicker than WHR expected. Management did not anticipate this occurring for another one-to-two quarters. As a result, operating margins are under pressure. WHR projected to end the year at margins of 6.25-6.50%, down meaningfully from its previous forecast of 7.25%.
While not reflected in today's price action, there were still areas of strength worth noting.
- Headline numbers were robust, as WHR delivered its first quarter of yr/yr earnings growth since 2Q21, expanding its bottom line by 21% to $5.45. It helped that yr/yr comparisons eased considerably as WHR no longer laps the demand spurred by an explosion in individuals working at home.
- Speaking of which, management is bullish on work-at-home building off higher levels over the long term, keeping replacement demand elevated. This trend, alongside market share gains of over a point in North America, WHR's largest market at 60% of Q3 revs, offset softer-than-expected discretionary purchases demand. WHR's sales edged 2.8% higher y/yr to $4.93 bln, surpassing consensus and on track to hit its FY23 outlook of $19.4 bln, which it reaffirmed.
- North America and Latin America were notable highlights, delivering net sales growth of 3.6% and 14.3% yr/yr, respectively. Profitability also improved across both regions, with EBIT margins advancing 20 bps in North America and 100 bps in Latin America.
- Conversely, EMEA and Asia lagged in Q3, posting revenue declines of 4.4% and 11.2%, respectively. EMEA endured a stubborn inflationary environment and geopolitical tensions, weighing on consumer sentiment. In Asia, recovery efforts remain slow.
- While WHR did not issue FY24 guidance, it provided color surrounding its key markets. WHR reiterated its outlook of low single-digit industry growth in North America. Additionally, after a significant recovery in Latin America, WHR expects the industry here to be flat to up 2%. Meanwhile, EMEA and Asia will continue to reflect a challenging macroeconomic environment, with industry demand down 6-8% and 2-3%, respectively.
WHR's reduced FY23 earnings outlook is spooking investors considerably today. FY24 is also shaping up to be a continuation of lackluster demand. However, today's sell-off offers an attractive long-term entry point. WHR is amid structural changes, including offloading businesses that do not meet its high-margin, high-growth criteria. The housing market is bearish, but with an undersupply of homes, WHR can accelerate growth substantially once demand conditions turn. The uncertainty lies in when demand will eventually return. However, given WHR's massive footprint and brand recognition, it is merely a matter of when, not if.
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