There are so many different forms of technical analysis that you really can't equate them. Some are really far-out efforts to explain the inexplicable. There's no empirical evidence that they're accurate. They seek complexities of patterns, assign them esoteric names, and attempt to predict the future based on supposed patterns of the past. But just the fact that new forms of technical analysis keep popping up argues against the validity of the ones they seek to replace.
However, I think that price and volume activities can sometimes give some strong short-term indications for a good time to buy or sell. And in these cases TA could better be termed LA for liklihood analysis. For Radica my TA (LA) guess is that the stock is being distributed/accumulated in a very narrow range, which indicates to me limited selling pressure. So I think it's more likely that the stock moves up from the 14 7/8 - 15 range (in the short term) than down. Most of the time, however, TA (LA) offers no short-term help for a given stock, despite what the pattern-makers read in the tea leaves.
Whatever your methods, though, it's your Schedule D that tells the tale. If you're regularly shoveling capital gains taxes at Uncle Sam and you pick stocks by moon phases, remain lunar, my friend, remain lunar. |
