AMD 2023-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
| Reported Results: | $0.70 | $5.80B | $6.10B ± 0.30B | | Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Outlook | | 1 | Vattila | $0.70 | $5.75B | $6.50B | | 2 | rzborusa | $0.71 | $5.80B | $6.47B | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.68 | $5.71B | $6.40B | | 3 | Joe NYC | $0.72 | $5.90B | $6.60B | | 4 | neolib | $0.67 | $5.70B | $6.38B | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.65 | $5.65B | $6.30B | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.75 | $6.00B | $6.80B | | - | Bing Chat | $0.75 | $6.00B | $6.80B |
Sorry for the delay, but here are the contest results. On EPS, I hit bullseye, thus edging ahead of Rzborusa's excellent entry. With just a cent miss on EPS and a bullseye on revenue, his entry scored best overall. However, with the disappointing outlook, Pravin did best in this category.
On the leaderboard, where every category has equal weight, Rzborusa climbs from 5th to 3rd rank, overtaking Joe and me, while Zacks, Neolib and Pravin hold on to the top spots. Bing Chat falls dramatically from top rank, joining Kelvin at the bottom of the list. Their optimistic outlook did not pay, sadly.
While Rzborusa and I were able to beat Zacks this quarter (on EPS, revenue and overall scores), Zacks remains in a solid pole position on the leaderboard. So we'll have to do very well this quarter to overtake them for the full year.
Thanks to all for playing!
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Scoreboards
Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.
AMD 2023 EPS Contest Scores
| 2023 Leaderboard |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 3 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.6337 | | 1 | neolib | 3 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.6167 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 0.6137 | | 3 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.6015 | | 4 | Vattila | 3 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.40 | 0.5998 | | 5 | Joe NYC | 3 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.42 | 0.5991 | | - | Bing Chat | 3 | 0.70 | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0.5847 | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 3 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.33 | 0.5460 |
AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores
| 2022 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 7 | gvatty | 2 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.3848 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.1038 |
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| | 2022 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | gvatty | 2 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.7696 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 3 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 4 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 6 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 7 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.4153 |
AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores
| 2021 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 3 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 5 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 6 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 7 | neolib | 3 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.6614 | | 8 | engineer | 1 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.2111 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.1852 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.1556 |
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| | 2021 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | neolib | 3 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.8819 | | 2 | engineer | 1 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.8445 | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 4 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 6 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 7 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 8 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.7408 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 0.6222 |
AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores
| 2020 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 3 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.6128 | | 4 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.5812 | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.2150 | | 6 | jc474 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.2020 |
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| | 2020 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.8601 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.8171 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 4 | jc474 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.8080 | | 5 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 6 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.7749 |
AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores
| 2019 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | | | | 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 1 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 3 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.7106 | | 4 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.6977 | | 5 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.4496 | | 6 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.3822 | | 7 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.2468 | | 8 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.2199 | | 9 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.2058 |
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| | 2019 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.9871 | | - | Zacks Estimate | | | | 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 2 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.9475 | | 3 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.9303 | | 4 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 6 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.8991 | | 7 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.8796 | | 8 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.8230 | | 9 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.7643 |
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