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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17008)	2/16/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Dr. Hanke has impeccable credentials to be sure. And it may be correct in some instances to say that the detractors do not understand the currency board. But at least he didn't try to say that the proponents in Indonesia understand how it works. I'd be happy to see any solution work. I spent a considerable amount of time in Indonesia and have many good friends there. One, however, told me earlier today that business is absolutely dead in the water (except for the business of advising wealthy Chinese-Indonesians how to emigrate to Australia, no joke). My friend also estimates that half the expats have already left Jakarta. My best guess is that banks are going to be writing off a lot of loans regardless of what happens with the currency board or the IMF. Probably they already have. But my recollection is that the US bank exposure is pretty small in the scheme of things. Citibank and the rest took a pretty big hit from the devaluations in the 1980's and stayed relatively cautious in the 90's -- compared to the Japanese banks, in any event.

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