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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Marathon who wrote (7948)2/16/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: David O'Berry  Read Replies (1) of 13594
 
Good analysis. The point is that all of these underlying reasons for it to go up does not change the fact that nobody knows the true user count. We really do not even know a close approximation. The reverse of the reserve is serious in my opinion. The point is that if they are flattening out the curve for users based on natural attrition factors coupled with moves like the rate increase then they can blow up quickly. Running a stock up into a split is normal but this stock has far outstripped most normal situations. This stock will probably continue to go up but it will not be for the simple reasons you have put forth. It will be because H&Q and other brokerages keep pushing this thing to the ignorant masses while fund managers jump in for the ride. This stock bothers me because the trend bucks normalcy in the utmost. In the past I have watched "fever" stocks like DNA and OCCF. Even though AOL is on a much different plane than these two the trend is disturbingly similar. Nothing stays at these astronomic valuations forever and generally the descent is twice as fast as the ascent. Hopefully, Ellie May and Granny will not be the ones burned when this thing flames out. I did not question your knowledge of investing. I simply stated that your timing seemed a little odd.
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