Howdy all!!
Looks like we're starting to make a recovery here. I would like to see the stock return to the $3-4 range that I believe the stock deserves considering the fundamentals of it all. I firmly belive that this stock is worth $4 since with its tax credits in place, it will become essentially a TAX FREE enterprise!!! Just because the company stated in the interviews, (which are several weeks old, BTW) there is nothing that prevents them from adjusting their business strategy in order to take maximum advantage of the Tax Credit benefits.
Manufacturing units for sales oversea, albeit at 55% profit on each one, has always been "an means to the end". The company has always planned on channeling income from manufacturing into the BIGGER
stategy of buying up the regional waste oil collectors and pumping out fuel for the US market. GRNO, I believe, wants to capture the largest chunk of this VERY LUCRATIVE market for itself. Overseas sales are merely the means of achieving this. My guess is to look for the company trying to accelerate the acquisition process by all available means. This is where the real money is to be made!!! Each operational unit controlled and operated by the company means a minimum of $0.20/sh in earnings on 5,193,000 shares outstanding.
Let's just supposed that they decide to produce half of its annual conservatively projected production of 12 units a year to domestic company owned operations, that would mean $1.20/sh in annual earnings, BEFORE the TAX CREDITS ARE APPLIED!!!! In addition, they would have approx $3 million in profit from manufacture and sale of the other 6 units. ($1.5 million/unit X .55(%) profit per unit = approx $3,000,000) or an additional $0.55/share.
Now I'm no analyst, and we have to remember that the figures are simply computed assuming that they start out with 6 units in operation and that won't be the case. However, next year will be a different situation.
I'm sorry, but I have a feeling that I continue to be seeking to increase my position in GRNO at these price levels as much as my current meager budget will allow. What you all decide to do is up to you. I've done my research, and tried to share everything that I know with you. I want to see GRNO succeed. And that would be the situation regardless of whether or not I actually owned shares in the company. I feel strongly that under Bill able and honest management I will sitting pretty on this stock for some time to come, at least until the LIKELY event of an eventual take over sometime over the next 5 years. The company will be too profitable not to have it share of suitors knocking on the door.
And someday I hope that we will all look back and say "Boy, that sure was quite a chance I took, but damn isn't that what capitalism is all about???" Personally, I'm going to say "I sure am glad that I did my research to the extent that I feel comfortable holding this company in my long-term aggressive growth portfolio" Hopefully, the stock will meet my $40-50 personal target in the next 4-5 years. In my opinion I think it stands a very good chance.
Regards,
Ron |
