This is the first of five December reports remaining in the Contest. That means it’s time to start sharpening up your pencils, and polishing your Crystal (Magic 8) Ball for the next year’s submissions. Next week’s report will include the draft rules for the following year (only a few clarifications and some edge cases are being addressed). Talk up how much fun this year’s contest was on the board and elsewhere. :-) A better year generally for biotechs than last (not all that difficult), with a real horse race for the top three portfolios here at the end. It would be nice to up the number of entrants.
The general market this week was a general repeat of the one before. Modest gains for the general market, stronger results for the biotech indices: +3% for the NASDAQ and +6% for the S&P, possibly both inching to ending the year in the black.
In individual stocks, MOR jump up +65% of its initial price. It had big drop from the previous week's close, $5.88, to $4.46 the morning of Nov 21, perhaps in response to a press release of the details from a Phase 3 study. They reported that their therapy met its primary goal (One analyst said MOR was reporting a “strong top line results”) but another announced “it did not meet a secondary endpoint”. Since MOR started the contest at $3.58 it was still a pretty decent YTD return. So was this phase 3 results report hiding such a catastrophe that one analysis said that “usually buy and hold was the prudent strategy” but for MOR It was time to close out the position. Or was it a buying opportunity? In the days after the report MOR has been on a steady climb, so that Friday it close at $7.01, thereby stepping into fifth place for the YTD return. CRIS is up +31% for the week, on no particular news since a “meh” earnings report on Nov 2. For the week’s losers KZIA dropped -40%. They had a busy week, saying that they had a non-binding agreement to purchase the non-China commercialization rights for a particular compound, and a private placement of 15% of the company for $2 million cash. CABA lost -29% for the week, but this was after a plunge of -65% of the starting price on Tuesday morning so it could have been worse.
It was a good week for the contest portfolios generally, gaining on average +$2.7k. Only two portfolios were in the red for the week. This week’s top portfolio was RKRW, +$9.7k mostly thanks to holding MOR. The second place was BLADERUNNER, +$4.7k. RKRW’s stronger result allowed them to take 5th place in the YTD results from BLADERUNNER, who slipped to 6th, ARTHUR RADLEY was in third place for the week (+$4.3k) from generally good performance from four stocks, and they return to 7th place YTD.
Last week ERIKOTTO was in first place for the week, +$4.5k, and YTD +$12k, thereby dispatching ALONER to second place. This week, alas, ERIKOTTO’s 15% bet on CABA, meant that they were -$2.8k in the red, and slipped to third place, YTD, restoring ALONER to first, and bumping up STEVELOKNESS to second, only $1.8k away from taking the gold for himself. Those horses are still racing. We might have a photo finish.
Report Time Ranges
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| Recent
| 11/24/23
| 12/2/23
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| YTD
| 12/31/2022
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| $517.63
| 0.4%
| $36,674.70
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| ^NBI
| $2,563.04
| 2.8%
| -$6,777.66
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| ^SPSIBI
| $5,026.49
| 5.7%
| -$6,123.41
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| MOR
| 65.4%
| KZIA
| -40.5%
| INZY
| 266.7%
| AVTX
| -98.7%
| CRIS
| 31.1%
| CABA
| -28.6%
| PRVB
| 136.5%
| APTA.L
| -97.6%
| XENE
| 19.9%
| STTK
| -18.9%
| LIAN
| 134.1%
| RGTPQ
| -96.2%
| CRVS
| 17.6%
| PDSB
| -8.0%
| DNTH
| 103.8%
| ACRS
| -94.3%
| OMER
| 17.3%
| DNTH
| -7.8%
| MOR
| 95.8%
| TCON
| -86.4%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| $2,650.90
| $2,491.06
| GENEGURU
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| -$23,695.19
| -$32,527.25
| JACK HARTMANN.
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - RKRW (7)
| $9,683.52
| $4,657.02
| -$8,620.64 (5)
| 1 - ALONER (2)
| $13,012.65
| ——
| $19,136.06
| $2,014.76 (11)
| 2 - BLADERUNNER (4)
| $4,718.52
| -$307.97
| -$11,626.33 (6)
| 2 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)
| $11,259.95
| $1,752.70
| $17,383.36
| $695.62 (13)
| 3 - ARTHUR RADLEY (14)
| $4,343.04
| -$683.45
| -$29,797.05 (7)
| 3 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| $9,499.57
| $3,513.07
| $15,622.98
| -$2,830.68 (15)
| 4 - A.J. MULLEN (13)
| $4,091.28
| -$935.21
| -$7,441.66 (4)
| 4 - A.J. MULLEN (4)
| -$7,441.66
| $20,454.30
| -$1,318.25
| $4,091.28 (4)
| 5 - TOMATO (12)
| $3,897.28
| -$1,129.21
| -$42,286.36 (11)
| 5 - RKRW (6)
| -$8,620.64
| $21,633.29
| -$2,497.23
| $9,683.52 (1)
| 6 - BULBAMAN (10)
| $3,581.21
| -$1,445.29
| -$41,461.45 (10)
| 6 - BLADERUNNER (5)
| -$11,626.33
| $24,638.98
| -$5,502.93
| $4,718.52 (2)
| 7 - RAJU_BIJLEE (3)
| $3,261.62
| -$1,764.87
| -$47,854.44 (15)
| 7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (8)
| -$29,797.05
| $42,809.70
| -$23,673.64
| $4,343.04 (3)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Top Recent Performance Portfolio (RKRW)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ALONER)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Current Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| ETON
| 10.0%
| 14.4% | 31.2%
| $3,120.57
| -$177.30
| 7.6%
| AFMD
| 10%
| 4.4% | -60.9%
| -$7,684.96
| -$164.77
| 20.2%
| HROW
| 10.0%
| 6.9% | -36.9%
| -$3,692.41
| -$47.43
| 15.9%
| CDTX
| 10%
| 10.9% | -2.6%
| -$329.45
| $1,116.62
| 8.1%
| KALV
| 10.0%
| 14.3% | 30.5%
| $3,047.34
| $991.12
| 7.7%
| CLSD
| 10%
| 10.5% | -6.2%
| -$777.81
| $230.10
| 8.4%
| KPTI
| 10.0%
| 2.5% | -76.7%
| -$7,674.12
| $154.12
| 43.0%
| CRDF
| 10%
| 9.9% | -11.4%
| -$1,435.10
| $355.33
| 8.9%
| MOR
| 10.0%
| 21.4% | 95.8%
| $9,581.01
| $6,536.31
| 5.1%
| CRIS
| 10%
| 11.3% | 1.0%
| $126.49
| $3,677.93
| 7.8%
| OCUL
| 10.0%
| 10.4% | -4.6%
| -$462.63
| $1,565.84
| 10.5%
| CRVS
| 10%
| 20.0% | 79.4%
| $10,024.64
| $2,110.49
| 4.4%
| PHAT
| 10.0%
| 7.1% | -34.9%
| -$3,493.76
| -$89.13
| 15.4%
| KZIA
| 10%
| 7.3% | -35.0%
| -$4,421.97
| -$4,530.59
| 12.2%
| TCON
| 10.0%
| 1.5% | -86.4%
| -$8,640.94
| $77.18
| 73.6%
| DNTH
| 10%
| 20.4% | 82.6%
| $10,429.65
| -$879.75
| 4.3%
| TELA
| 10.0%
| 5.4% | -51.0%
| -$5,095.65
| $582.61
| 20.4%
| MRNA
| 10%
| 5.4% | -52.0%
| -$6,570.69
| $99.40
| 16.5%
| URGN
| 10.0%
| 16.1% | 46.9%
| $4,689.97
| $90.19
| 6.8%
| PRVB
| 10%
| 0.0% | 136.5%
| $13,651.84
| $0.00
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