ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

To: ajtj99 who wrote (83061)	12/4/2023 11:11:24 PM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 96758

I disagree. Oil bulls claim there is a 2mbp per day shortfall and the current drop is all speculative paper supply by the CTAs. Well if that is the case, then Saudis should be able to pump 2mbp more per day and meet their goals. Who cares about the temporary bump? It will be recouped when the paper sells have to cover. On the other hand, if the oil market is really weaker than claimed, then it is a zero sum game and the Saudis are subsidizing US, Canadian, and all the other producers. They should press their advantage and flood the market to make up for the lost revenue in volume. I know that I am oversimplifying this. They may not have the capacity to to pump enough to make up for the revenue shortfall, if the demand is weak. And that is the bear case that CTAs are pushing for to the breaking point.

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