Beyond the extension motive, the previous counterintelligence investigation by the FBI never stopped. Crossfire Hurricane evolved into the Mueller special counsel investigation. The same investigative units from the FBI then transferred into the Jack Smith special counsel.

On/around April 19, 2024, if Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee, the FISA court might look at any renewal authorities differently. It’s one thing to have American citizen Donald Trump under title-1 surveillance, it is another thing entirely to have the opposing candidate to the current administration under legally authorized surveillance by the DOJ-NSD.

The end date of April 19, 2024, would align with a need to have more than reasonable suspicion to retain the surveillance. At least, that’s the way the FISC would likely look at it.

If Occam’s razor is applied to the current datapoints, the most likely scenario for the DOJ-NSD, FBI and Jack Smith special counsel investigative units, is that Donald Trump is currently under FISC authorized title-1 surveillance.

Retaining the 702 status quo through April allows the surveillance to fall upon anyone in his campaign orbit.

The DOJ’s position in 2024 would then simply be a repeat of the DOJ’s position in 2016.

Someone might want to talk to Donald Trump about this.