COTS as of December 5, 2023
Is the Santa Claus Rally in the General Markets Done?
Gold & Silver Spike & Pull Back to their 200 dma
The commercials increased their net short position in silver. The short position is approaching the highest level for the year. In gold, the commercials decreased their net short position. Open interest in gold went down as the commercials decreased both their long and short positions. See here and here and here.
Gold made a new all time high on Sunday evening and then pulled back to $2,014. just above the support level of $2,000. Gold is no longer overbought and is trading not far above its 200 dma. The HUI did not participate in gold's spike higher and has pulled back trading around its 200 dma. Silver spiked along with gold and pulled back, trading below its 200 dma. Silver is well off the all time high of $50. (I've included the long term charts of gold in silver in this post to show the big picture.) Gold is trading above previous resistance levels of $2,000 and silver has pulled back to a support level just above $22.50 - $23.00.
Copper took a rest from its rally since mid-November pulling back at the beginning of the week with a bounce on Thursday and Friday.
Platinum and palladium are consolidating at their recent lows. The platinum chart looking better than palladium.
WTIC continued its pull back to the $69 level. This in spite of the OPEC+ meeting where they committed to continue a reduced production level into March 2024. Gareth Soloway called this down move in WTIC and is anticipating a small bounce. Natgas has continued its move down trading to $2.54.
The US$ continued its bounce from the 102.50 level to above 103.98 and looks to be heading higher. The yield on the 10 year US treasuries dropped to 4.1 from its high this year of 5.2 and ticked upward at the end of the week. Analysts I follow anticipate the yield to trade in this range for the next number of months.
Of the market indices, the SPX was the strongest making a new high while the TSX was the weakest pulling back from its recent high. The DOW and the QQQ continued consolidating at their highs. The DOW is now in overbought territory.
Ed Steer's comments:
On gold:
"... If this 'wash, rinse & spin' cycle in gold plays out the way that the others have in the past, we've still got a long way to go to the downside, as gold's 50 and 200-day moving averages are still some considerable distance below yesterday's closing price in the February contract."
On silver:
"... How much more is left to go in silver remains to be seen, but we're far closer to being done to the downside in silver, than we are in gold."
This chart of the US $ starts from zero making the recent moves easier to read.
Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:
cftc.gov
Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:
cftc.gov |
