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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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Spekulatius

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74510)	12/12/2023 10:21:09 AM
From: Sean Collett	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 78552

My $0.04 Harhsu is time is the important factor here. Buffett operates at a different time cycle than you and perhaps there are better ways to allocate money today than trying to copy him. For oil, I am not smart enough to play that game so I steer clear. I do see it is clear oil isn't going away tomorrow as many gov push for, but the ROI may not be for another few years depending on how things go. There is a world of political pieces that play in here and unless you understand them all then the risk is just too great IMO. If we take the price of OXY today ($55.82/s) and we estimate it returns to say the Aug 2018 price of ~$80/s then you would need it to return there within the next year to get a CAGR of 43.3%. At two years it drops to 19.7% and three years it drops to 12.7% which isn't that great. It's been almost a decade since OXY has even hit $90/s and it last hit its highest close of $110/88/s on May 2, 2011. -Sean

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