| | | As the year draws to a close, the reports seem to be falling into a pattern: positive weeks for the NASDAQ composite, biotech indices generally outperforming the general market, net improvement in the contest portfolios measured either by the average or median performance, +80% of the portfolios in the black for the week (though only three in the black YTD), AND a change in the identity of the first place YTD portfolio. So let’s run the video tape for the specific highlights.
The top stock for the week, VKTX +58% (of its original price at the contest start), which returned it to YTD profitable status. The reason for the good performance was according to Motley Fool, a knock-on effect of other news; (1)Roche signing a deal earlier this week, to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion in cash, plus $400 million in milestone payments; (2) Carmot was acquired with a significant premium because it is developing a drug targeting obesity, a hot thing right at the moment (e.g. Ozempic) (3) VKTX also has an obesity drug in the pipeline (recently enrolling patients for phase II studies) (4) The market has decided to pre-price in some sort of acquisition premium in VKTX when some other well-capitalized pharmaceutical views it an easy entry to the feeding frenzy. We’ll see if this holds up (for the next 3 weeks, at least).
In second place for the week: CRVS (+36%), most of it at Friday’s opening, perhaps due to precognitive investors who knew about the press release at noon on Saturday, talking up “New Interim Phase1/1b” results which are interpreted as providing treatment that exceeds the current standard of care. The release also discussed advanced plans for the phase 3 clinical trial. This performance returned CRVS to the YTD performance winners at fourth place (+130%), replacing DNTH which we mention later. The third place winner for the week was OCUL (+34%), enough to put it in the black for the year. Most of the gain occurred at the opening bell Monday, with no apparent reason.
DNTH was the big loser for the week (-32%), which dropped it from the top 5 YTD list.
The contest portfolios generally had a pretty good week, adding another $1.8k to the average portfolio, with twelve of the fifteen portfolios in the black. But with the YTD average performance of -$22k, it looks unlikely that there will be a lot of portfolios making a profit YTD this year.
The number one performing portfolio for the week was ERIKOTTO, +$5.9k, from holding OCUL and URGN. This allowed ERIKOTTO to move their YTD standing (+$15k) from 3rd to 1st, moving past last week’s 1st and 2nd place YTD of ALONER and STEVE LOKNESS, who both were in the red for the week. ERIKOTTO shouldn’t get too comfortable as ALONER is only $2.8k behind. ARTHUR RADLEY turned in the second place performance for the week, (+$5.7k), almost all of which was due to their holding of EYEN, the fourth place finisher for the week (+24%). ARTHUR RADLEY remains in seventh place YTD, but has closed the gap with sixth place BLADRUNNER by +$11k, so the they are within $7k of passing them. RKRW’s fourth place weekly return (+$4.9k) moved them past A.J. MULLEN to take fourth place YTD.
There is still plenty of opportunity for additional portfolios to end the year in the black.
I promised to lay out the contest rules, which I had intended to have after the spreadsheet report, as well as some discussion of possible tweaking of the rules. Oh, and a reply to A.J. MULLEN about how the spreadsheet calculates the “percent” gain or loss of a stock. It’s almost done, but I shouldn’t wait on the weekly report any more.
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| Recent
| 12/2/23
| 12/8/23
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| YTD
| 12/31/2022
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| $945.31
| 0.7%
| $37,620.02
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| ^NBI
| $1,113.41
| 1.2%
| -$5,664.25
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| ^SPSIBI
| $1,760.36
| 1.9%
| -$4,363.05
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| VKTX
| 58.2%
| DNTH
| -32.0%
| INZY
| 262.4%
| AVTX
| -98.9%
| CRVS
| 36.5%
| JSPR
| -23.8%
| PRVB
| 136.5%
| RGTPQ
| -98.5%
| OCUL
| 33.5%
| ALGS
| -12.7%
| LIAN
| 129.6%
| APTA.L
| -97.4%
| EYEN
| 23.9%
| BLCM
| -11.0%
| CRVS
| 125.9%
| ACRS
| -93.6%
| GTHX
| 21.0%
| KALV
| -9.8%
| MOR
| 96.9%
| TCON
| -87.4%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| $1,807.85
| $2,306.24
| RAJU_BIJLEE
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| -$21,887.34
| -$29,019.21
| JACK HARTMANN
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - ERIKOTTO (15)
| $5,858.74
| $4,098.39
| $15,358.32 (1)
| 1 - ERIKOTTO (3)
| $15,358.32
| ——
| $19,721.37
| $5,858.74 (1)
| 2 - ARTHUR RADLEY (3)
| $5,661.28
| $3,900.92
| -$24,135.77 (7)
| 2 - ALONER (1)
| $12,583.13
| $2,775.19
| $16,946.19
| -$429.51 (13)
| 3 - TOMATO (5)
| $5,318.59
| $3,558.23
| -$36,967.77 (10)
| 3 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)
| $5,348.29
| $10,010.03
| $9,711.34
| -$5,911.66 (15)
| 4 - RKRW (1)
| $4,877.56
| $3,117.20
| -$3,743.08 (4)
| 4 - RKRW (5)
| -$3,743.08
| $19,101.40
| $619.97
| $4,877.56 (4)
| 5 - JACK HARTMANN (14)
| $3,508.04
| $1,747.68
| -$29,019.21 (8)
| 5 - A.J. MULLEN (4)
| -$7,246.44
| $22,604.76
| -$2,883.39
| $195.22 (12)
| 6 - BULBAMAN (6)
| $3,365.80
| $1,605.44
| -$38,095.65 (11)
| 6 - BLADERUNNER (6)
| -$17,135.06
| $32,493.38
| -$12,772.01
| -$5,508.73 (14)
| 7 - TECHNETIUM (12)
| $3,306.52
| $1,546.17
| -$32,854.13 (9)
| 7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (7)
| -$24,135.77
| $39,494.09
| -$19,772.72
| $5,661.28 (2)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (ARTHUR RADLEY)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Current Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| ABCM
| 11.1%
| 23.0% | 44.8%
| $5,409.98
| $14.58
| 5.7%
| CABA
| 15.0%
| 22.8% | 75.5%
| $11,318.92
| $340.54
| 3.8%
| AKYA
| 11.1%
| 7.7% | -51.4%
| -$6,210.22
| -$412.32
| 17.0%
| DAWN
| 10.0%
| 4.9% | -43.0%
| -$4,298.33
| $4.65
| 17.5%
| ALVR
| 11.1%
| 7.9% | -50.2%
| -$6,060.18
| $972.75
| 16.6%
| FULC
| 10.0%
| 5.9% | -32.0%
| -$3,200.55
| -$54.95
| 14.7%
| ASRT
| 11.1%
| 3.9% | -75.3%
| -$9,099.06
| -$136.55
| 33.6%
| ICVX
| 5%
| 5.7% | 32.4%
| $1,618.39
| $6.30
| 15.1%
| EYEN
| 22.2%
| 33.6% | 5.7%
| $1,367.80
| $5,468.47
| 3.9%
| INZY
| 5%
| 15.7% | 262.4%
| $13,119.05
| -$214.29
| 5.5%
| IDIA.SW
| 22.2%
| 6.2% | -80.5%
| -$19,450.32
| -$172.07
| 21.3%
| LIFE
| 10.0%
| 4.7% | -45.2%
| -$4,520.55
| -$319.63
| 18.3%
| ISEE
| 0.0%
| 0.0% | 86.8%
| $8,682.86
| $0.00
| ----
| OCUL
| 10.0%
| 11.2% | 28.8%
| $2,882.56
| $3,345.20
| 7.8%
| LQDA
| 11.1%
| 17.5% | 10.1%
| $1,223.37
| -$73.58
| 7.5%
| PDSB
| 10.0%
| 3.4% | -61.0%
| -$6,098.48
| -$75.76
| 25.6%
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| PRQR
| 10.0%
| 4.7% | -45.9%
| -$4,594.59
| $729.73
| 18.5%
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| URGN
| 15.0%
| 20.9% | 60.9%
| $9,131.91
| $2,096.96
| 4.1%
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