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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 173.20-3.3%Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Harvey Rosenkrantz who wrote (8593)2/17/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (5) of 152472
 
It's an appealing scenarion. Too bad it's not anchored in reality. The Asian and European operators already committed to W-CDMA suddenly starting to overlay Qualcomm's CDMA on their GSM networks, full well knowing it is not compatible with W-CDMA? Making W-CDMA compatible with narrowband CDMA after non-compatible standard has already been accepted by all major operators and manufacturers? Take a look at how Wall Street is reacting right now to Qualcomm's "opening barrage" vs. Nokia's latest GSM infrastructure breakthrough and you see just how likely these scenarios are.
How about discussing the future of Qualcomm stripped of all blue sky scenarios? Just acknowledging that Qualcomm's CDMA is an appealing niche standard with nice growth potential in USA and somewhat limited but still interesting potential in Asia. Having GSM overlaying option will not help this company take over Europe by storm. China is already lost to GSM, as you probably have noticed, even though discussing it seems to be taboo. Holding some patents important to W-CDMA will not suddenly transform this company either. There are dozens of companies holding patents important to W-CDMA. Brass ring will go to companies that have already done years of R&D on W-CDMA and now have the inside edge in developing the hardware & handsets. American companies fought tooth and claw to stop Europe and Asia from accepting the Nordic W-CDMA proposal. And they lost. This is *not* a victory in disguise.
Earth calling Qualcomm: you have a nice little company with good prospects. Trying to hype yourself into Intel/Microsoft of the millennium and feeding unrealistic expectations will result in a backlash.

Tero
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