Here is this week’s report on the Biotech Values Charity Stock Picking Contest. And what a week it was. Only two more reports before we call it a wrap for 2023. And if they are anything like this week’s, it’s going to be exciting.
Given all the swooning from the latest Fed interest rate news, a 2.8% improvement in the NASDAQ composite might not be unexpected. But the biotech indices greatly exceeded that, massively, 6% for the NASDAQ biotechs, 8.1%(!) for the S&P biotechs.
And we can see the evidence also in the stocks covered by one or more contest portfolios, where the average stock was up +6.8%. although about a third still managed to spend the week in the red. Considering the portfolios, the week gave a +$5k bump to the median portfolio. Only two portfolios were in the red last week. Alas, the portfolios’ YTD performance has a lot of ground to cover to profitability, with the median YTD portfolio a -$24k loss.
At the top of this week’s top stocks list is STTK (+180% of its price at the start of the contest) which catapulted it into second place in the YTD standings (+190%). The reason seems to be the release on Thursday of a press release stating that “positive Initial Topline data” in a phase 1 study. MOR was second for the week with a none too shabby +75%, popping its YTD performance from fifth to third. They also had good news, on Monday, on “comprehensive results for the Phase 3” study. And third place ICVX was not far behind, +$65%, just because Zacks (must be an analyst that people pay attention to) upgraded their advice to Buy, also on Tuesday. Even fourth place CABA turned in +$47k, which would have been the top performer for many of the weeks this year. They managed that just by saying they planned to attend a conference. PRVB dropped from 2nd to 4th place YTD, and LIAN dropped from 3rd to 5th.
Changing the focus to the portfolios, all but two were in the black for this week. And we have increased the count of profitable portfolios YTD to five, though the hold on this status by the last three is somewhat tenuous. One indicator that this would be a very good week for SOME of the portfolios: Last week’s range in the portfolio returns for the top 7 was from +$3.3k to +$5.9k, recognized as a very good performance, while for this week that range is $5.5k to $22k.
The best portfolio for the week was JACK HARTMANN, up +$22k, thanks to their foresight in putting up $10k for STTK. This took them from their status as the YTD median portfolio last week to sixth place in the YTD standings, pushing BLADERUNNER down to seventh. RKRW was second for the week (+$16k), in their case making good use of their MOR holdings, but they had a number of other quite good if not spectacular picks. Second for the week was enough to move him up to 2nd YTD from fourth, changing places with ALONER, held back because their holding positions in both CRVS and DNTH. Third place for the week was ERIK OTTO (+$16k, INZY being his winner for the week). This was good enough to keep them in the YTD first place position (+$31k). In fact with a $19k gap between them and second place, they might even have locked this down for the year. A.J. MULLEN and STEVE LOCKNESS kept their third and fifth place in the YTD standings
There are a number of subsidiary postings this week of interest for participants in next year’s contest. But this one is far from over.
Report Time Ranges
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| Recent
| 12/8/23
| 12/15/2023
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| YTD
| 12/31/2022
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| $3,916.76
| 2.8%
| $41,536.78
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| ^NBI
| $5,703.07
| 6.0%
| $38.82
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| ^SPSIBI
| $7,729.01
| 8.1%
| $3,365.96
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| STTK
| 184.3%
| CRVS
| -45.9%
| INZY
| 282.9%
| AVTX
| -98.8%
| MOR
| 74.6%
| DNTH
| -41.0%
| STTK
| 187.4%
| APTA.L
| -97.5%
| ICVX
| 65.1%
| AADI
| -20.5%
| MOR
| 171.5%
| ACRS
| -93.6%
| CABA
| 46.7%
| LLY
| -7.1%
| PRVB
| 136.5%
| RGTPQ
| -87.8%
| KALV
| 37.3%
| JSPR
| -5.4%
| LIAN
| 135.2%
| TCON
| -87.4%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| $5,305.65
| $4,989.81
| GENEGURU
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| -$16,581.69
| -$23,912.12
| ARTHUR RADLEY
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - JACK HARTMANN (5)
| $21,695.33
| $13,966.32
| -$7,323.88 (6)
| 1 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| $30,968.87
| ——
| $27,602.91
| $15,610.55 (3)
| 2 - RKRW (4)
| $16,107.02
| $8,378.01
| $12,363.94 (2)
| 2 - RKRW (4)
| $12,363.94
| $18,604.92
| $8,997.99
| $16,107.02 (2)
| 3 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| $15,610.55
| $7,881.54
| $30,968.87 (1)
| 3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)
| $6,068.42
| $24,900.45
| $2,702.46
| $720.13 (11)
| 4 - A.J. MULLEN (12)
| $8,271.70
| $542.70
| $1,025.27 (5)
| 4 - ALONER (2)
| $2,066.72
| $28,902.15
| -$1,299.24
| -$10,516.42 (15)
| 5 - RAJU_BIJLEE (8)
| $6,383.25
| -$1,345.76
| -$39,164.95 (13)
| 5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)
| $1,025.27
| $29,943.60
| -$2,340.69
| $8,271.70 (4)
| 6 - TOMATO (3)
| $5,998.04
| -$1,730.97
| -$30,969.73 (10)
| 6 - JACK HARTMANN (8)
| -$7,323.88
| $38,292.75
| -$10,689.83
| $21,695.33 (1)
| 7 - BULBAMAN (6)
| $5,531.10
| -$2,197.91
| -$32,564.56 (11)
| 7 - BLADERUNNER (6)
| -$17,278.65
| $48,247.52
| -$20,644.61
| -$143.59 (14)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Top Recent Performance Portfolio (JACK HARTMANN)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Current Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| AMRN
| 10.0%
| 7.4% | -31.4%
| -$3,140.50
| -$219.83
| 14.6%
| CABA
| 15.0%
| 25.4% | 122.2%
| $18,324.32
| $7,005.41
| 3.0%
| GMDA
| 10.0%
| 2.6% | -75.5%
| -$7,554.26
| -$34.88
| 40.9%
| DAWN
| 10.0%
| 5.1% | -33.7%
| -$3,373.61
| $924.72
| 15.1%
| HUMA
| 10.0%
| 15.8% | 46.4%
| $4,644.55
| $1,374.41
| 6.8%
| FULC
| 10.0%
| 5.7% | -26.0%
| -$2,596.15
| $604.40
| 13.5%
| ICPT
| 10.0%
| 16.6% | 53.6%
| $5,359.74
| $0.00
| 6.5%
| ICVX
| 5%
| 7.5% | 97.5%
| $4,874.06
| $3,255.67
| 10.1%
| IOVA
| 10.0%
| 13.1% | 21.8%
| $2,175.27
| $2,159.62
| 8.2%
| INZY
| 5%
| 14.6% | 282.9%
| $14,142.86
| $1,023.81
| 5.2%
| LYEL
| 10.0%
| 6.0% | -44.7%
| -$4,466.86
| $0.00
| 18.1%
| LIFE
| 10.0%
| 4.3% | -44.3%
| -$4,429.22
| $91.32
| 18.0%
| NGM
| 10.0%
| 1.6% | -85.1%
| -$8,505.98
| -$215.54
| 66.9%
| OCUL
| 10.0%
| 10.7% | 39.9%
| $3,985.77
| $1,103.20
| 7.2%
| PDSB
| 10.0%
| 4.2% | -61.4%
| -$6,136.36
| -$37.88
| 25.9%
| PDSB
| 10.0%
| 3.0% | -61.4%
| -$6,136.36
| -$37.88
| 25.9%
| RBOT
| 10.0%
| 1.7% | -84.4%
| -$8,438.61
| $234.65
| 64.0%
| PRQR
| 10.0%
| 4.4% | -41.9%
| -$4,189.19
| $405.41
| 17.2%
| STTK
| 10.0%
| 31.0% | 187.4%
| $18,739.13
| $18,434.78
| 3.5%
| URGN
| 15.0%
| 19.4% | 69.1%
| $10,366.40
| $1,234.50
| 3.9%
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