Some would say crude oil is currently in a cyclical bear within a long term secular bear, both yet to finish.
I am on this count and path until it proves otherwise. Crude oil is currently in a delicate area, there is a fair amount of support right here. But if it drops on down below about 65, it will probably go to a big hard bottom, much lower. Likewise if it ramps above 80 then the count gets busted.
The cycles shown are just a tad shorter than an 4 yr cycle, making the double cycle just a bit shorter than 8 yrs. ... coincident with something that goes on in the dollar awa gold. Dollar right now is possibly putting in a major low, yet to be proven.
If this path proves viable the best spots for a big bottom are early '26 at the half cycle, and then early '28 at the full cycle. Give or take. Right now I have a possible major market top in mid '27, with a dollar top to follow. I think the Oct '22 bottom marked a 4.5 yr low, next one will be a high about mid '27. And ... low energy prices are helping it along. The economy just can't cope very well with 100 dollar plus crude.
Last year the biggest surprise was the wipe out in NG, still not finished. It appears if you look closely NG leads crude oil by a bit. All the energy bulls were shocked, especially the gas bulls. It did not surprise me, I had just started studying cycles, and could see the possibility of a big half cycle top. Cycles are tricky and difficult to say the least.
You have probably heard of oil to gas price ratio, which is historically about 10. Its basis is related to energy content. It tracked up into the big top of 2008. Since then it has been in and out of sync, in only at the major cycle lows and some tops of both oil and gas. Right now it says a fair price for oil is about 25.
Some rumors exist that the Sauds are ready to open the taps, put the shale boyz in a bind. More later but I think EV's are a bigger issue, global basis.
I have a paper from Prechter, he hit a 5th wave top in oil pretty close. He also predicted oil would diminish in importance due to new technology. And he further said all the oil producing regions and countries would subtly recognize this, and pump flat out, trying to maximize what is left in the ground. Sometimes he hits it.
And I agree with you on backward. The data dog says the oil bottom is usually not reached until it goes heavily the opposite. Others including myself agree and think it likely oil will continue to trace NG to a big bottom, not yet in. There is precident for that to happen. If it does it is also likely the price ratio will get back in sync, and we can start all over again.
mcoscillator.com
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