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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Rocketman who wrote (4105)2/17/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: Vector1  Read Replies (1) of 9719
 
Rocket,
MOGN has a lot of legs. The market cap is still under $80m, they have plenty of cash and have a drug with a market potential of prob $50m at a 95% gross margin. The issue is whether they are going to spend all of their money on MGI114 an anticancer agent currently in phase I. We are going to let this one ride a while.
Eric Hecht has been a bear on Biogen for a long time. He has been consistently wrong. His issue is that Avonex has little growth left and that the pipeline will not mature quickly enough to to make up for the loss of royalty revenue starting in the year 2000. While royalty revenue will start to delcline in 2000 it doesn't all fall away overnight. The pepeline is gaining increased exposure and the anti CD40 MAB could be a blockbuster. In addition I believe Avonex will continue to show strong growth in Europe this year and will grow in the US as Nuerologists are more aggressive in prescribing it. I don't know if you saw it but the Cinton administration is proposing sweeping legislation which will greatly limit managed cares ability to limit treatments for patients. If approved this will be a major plus for Biogen. That being said since we are not taxed in the portfolio I would have reccommended taking profits at $50. I think we will get there.
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