how much would you pay for $100 that is in a lock box controlled by somebody else.
You're telling me that a significant number of the retail investors in the USA that have looked at GRVY have passed because they believe the management will never distribute the cash position to shareholders in the form of buyback or dividend?
I doubt most retail investors are that sophisticated.
And any day the company could announce a share repurchase or a dividend, and the stock then is worth 2x or 3x it's current value? This makes little sense.
I'm a fairly sophisticated individual investor, and I don't know that GRVY will never make shareholder friendly use of it's cash.
GRVY has only been growing strongly for six years. 2023 is going to be their best year ever. It's common for this type of rapid growth stock to niot distribute it's cash during the growth phase.
Sorry, that explanation explains perhaps why GRVY should trade at a 10x PE rather than a 20x PE, but it doesn't explain why it's trading at a 2x PE ex-cash, after just completing the best year in it's recent history, and with China on the horizon as a 2024 market.
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I don't know if Japan rules allow it, but if I were in private equity I would acquire the Japanese parent (Gung Ho), and implement something like 10% of last year's free cash flow goes to GRVY share repurchase this year, 10% of last year's free cash flow goes to GRVY dividend this year, and GRVY's resulting share price ppreciation would pay for the acquisition of Gung Ho very quickly. This is EASY to see.
If I had a few $billion and an army of Japanese M&A lawyers, that's what I'd do!
Then sell GRVY to Activision - Microsoft, or Nintendo, or to any large gaming software company with a normal PE. |
