I finished my first full year down 25%.
Buy NGL on this first day of trading in 2024 for $5.50.
It will easily be $10 on the first trading day of 2025. At that point a return to distributions will be on the near term horizon.
For some historical perspective on NGL, here's key data points from when NGL's unit price ranged between $9 and $25.
(EBITDA is trailing four quarters as reported on March Q (FY end) earnings release.)
2020 - LT debt = $3.15b, EBITDA = $590m
2019 - LT Debt = $1.264b, EBITDA = $440m
2018 - LT Debt = $1.71b, EBITDA = $408m
2017 - LT Debt = $2.15b, EBITDA = $381m
2016 - LT Debt = $2.341b, EBITDA = $424.1m
NGL hasn't reported 2024 (Mar) results yet, but it's not unreasonable to expect it to look like
2024 - LT Debt = $2.6b, EBITDA = $650m
EBITDA is growing. It's currently higher than the listed time period (when NGL was mostly above $10).
NGL almost went bust, but didn't. Barring major unexpected disasters in their business lines (which is quite different from the periods above, in a good way) an MLP with higher EBITDA, growing EBITDA and manageable debt should trade significantly higher than the current price.
Don't trade. Just buy NGL and hold, and a year from now tell us how you did.
Don't trade. Don't trade. Don't trade......... |
