Good Morning Bull and Yardman,
Clx studies suggest a corrective wave is over due. We've seen a much longer than normal extension of the 3 day averages. normally they perform a quickly reversed spike.
Last week I wrote my thoughts over on Wollie World's section at the Crystal Ball Forum - before the labor report came out on Friday morning:
Red Sea being diverted is a cost factor to 11% of the World's oil and more commodity goods to Europe. In September of 2007, the Fed pivoted and dropped rates, as oil shot up and fed inflation. I think we'll still see rates back to recent highs for longer.
When/if the talking heads (who turn on a dime as Wall Street creates the scripts) we'll realize the exuberance of dropping rates in a record fast fashion, was wishful thinking. A strong jobs report this morning will seal the deal, as yields go up and money flows stay in MMF and Treasurys. That will set up the continuation of a corrective wave that will begin a reset in clx climate. Just look at how lofty and long the 3 day has floated above 7 (since November 10th). To point out how long it has done so, note on charts that the 3 day usually is a spike. Recent charts show the 10 day unusually spiked up above the 3 day on November 24th @ 9.2. The 3 day peaked out on 12/01 and 12/04 with a 15 and a 16 and has since lost its MOJO. That kind of price action suggests a distribution at lofty price levels. Combine that with a Top signal I'll coin as a "BBF top" (BREEZE'S BINGO FREQUENCY) as his great EW price targets get reached and he declares a Bingo. I'll give you my Wall street script: This morning we see a strong labor market reading for December and the Fed's rate pivot is canceled in the front half of 2024. When the pivot does come with a rate cut, it will mark a quickly weakening economy and oil will then begin it's blow off top. It takes a recession to weaken oil. That's a stronger signal that an anticipated recession. With an election in November the Fed will be loath to make big moves, but this Fed is a very political Fed and will want to avoid a recession and support the economy that got Powell re-elected to the job he loves. My puts are closed completely. I'm building cash. There will be better prices to buy equities with not far down the calendar is my thinking. It sort of reminds me of when Bush had lost favor as a president and Obama walked into an economy that had just slipped into a steep decline. My bet is the American voter has had their fill of huge monetary expansion on "Climate Change that is bogus and Trillions going to more expensive energy that somehow never changes the weather, but lines politicians pockets and supports the scam called climate change. There is really only one answer and that candidate is a past president who has called this scam all along. Trump may be the only answer to the decline we're about to take. It seems to me we saw this happen in 2016 as well. A big fat rally into the election. Let's just make sure we don't shut down the counting before results are announced and our 3 million plus immigrants don't make it to the voting booth via bogussed up absentee ballots.
Todays added edit:
All these immigrants are getting support and organization from the same NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGO's) who have in the past participated in Ballot harvesting in the few swing states that are normally blue. My bet is the ballots are being printed as I type. In my humble opinion when Biden accuses Trump of being a danger to Democracy, he is expressing exactly what the Democrats actions truly are. He is a sociopathic liar. Truth does not matter, rather what sounds good and achieves the goal is how his sick mind works. Wisconsin's liberal state "Supreme Court " has just passed a law that has negated the strict interpretation of not counting ballots if the witness data is incomplete - the door for illegal immigrants getting to vote in our blue states, where relaxed absentee ballot laws are being changed at the last minute is well in action. The nice sounding claim that "Every Vote Counts" - even those of 3 million illegal immigrants who flocked through the open Southern Border will flood the counting machines with none of the immigrants ever entering a voting booth. November 5th may be a very ugly time period in the history of our Democracy. |
