Thanks, very good advice..
This may help understanding as current and future situation is similar to 1951 after Korean War...gl
Interview: The All Boys Club Begins:
Begins 2:00 - Interest rates. It's not the Fed, it's govt spending. What is happening now, is same as 1951 after Korean War.
3:50 - re-JOHNSON, to be Speaker you have to be part of the Club..... armstrongeconomics.com 40:00
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Why We Should Not Blame the Federal Reserve:
One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.
They never look at the history of central banks and how Congress has been manipulating the law to alter the Fed’s purpose.
When the Fed was created, the branches managed internal domestic capital flows. Each branch was independent, and they would lower or raise the interest rate in their jurisdiction depending on the flow of money. Too much cash? They lowered the rate. Not enough cash? They raised it. This was all before Keynesian Economics when the interest rate became the tool to manipulate our demand.
The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 created the Panic of 1907, which caused capital to rush from East to West. This created a shortage of cash in New York and led to bank failures. Hence, the Federal Reserve was created with branches to manipulate the internal capital flows – not the Quantity of Money Theory or the demand of the people.
Roosevelt usurped all the independence of the Fed and created a Washington monopoly to push his socialist agenda into place. We are hearing the same pitch of equality once again from Biden. The government is supposed to be separate from the Federal Reserve, but the president appoints the chair. The formerly independent central bank that was owned by the bankers to prevent the misuse of taxpayer funds is now under control by the banks only in theory; the reins of power are political.
The Federal Reserve failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 and 2019. Most analysts ignore that entirely. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it would have ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest. Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.
Jerome Powell "to the People" has no power over fiscal spending or the deficit. Central banks everywhere are trapped. The central banks in Europe are in FAR worse shape right now. When Powell "to the People" stood before Congress and subtly criticized the Biden Administration by calling their constant spending “unsustainable,” he was attempting to explain that the central bank could not overpower the government here. The central bank can create elastic money, and it will return to doing so. Private capital is fleeing government debt on a global level.
In the end, the globalist agenda is to default on all national debts, and they will no longer need to bail out the bankers. Welcome to the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization. armstrongeconomics.com
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NY Fed Survey: Americans Optimistic on Inflation:
"The year began with a massive disruption in the global supply chain and increased cargo costs. There are countless protests occurring among farmers across the world who disagree about the future of crops and food price stability. The leading driver that is not discussed – WAR! America is funding two major conflicts at the moment and sinking deeper into debt. The extreme geopolitical uncertainty and risks associated with war always lead to higher energy prices, increased production costs, and massive government spending, further fueling inflation."
According to a recent survey by the New York Federal Reserve, Americans’ inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest level in three years. “How much worse could it get?” the average person assumes. The median expectation is that the inflation rate will be up 3% one year from now, down from a high of 7.1% recorded in June 2022. The survey found that Americans anticipate wages rising by 3% to meet their inflation expectations. Consumers have not been this optimistic since January 2021.
However, the people still anticipate that inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the longer term, with projections of around 2.6% three years from now and 2.5% five years from now. The Federal Reserve’s last forecast states inflation will decline to 2.2% in 2025 before reaching its lofty 2% target in 2026.
According to a recent survey by the New York Federal Reserve, Americans’ inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest level in three years. “How much worse could it get?” the average person assumes. The median expectation is that the inflation rate will be up 3% one year from now, down from a high of 7.1% recorded in June 2022. The survey found that Americans anticipate wages rising by 3% to meet their inflation expectations. Consumers have not been this optimistic since January 2021.
However, the people still anticipate that inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the longer term, with projections of around 2.6% three years from now and 2.5% five years from now. The Federal Reserve’s last forecast states inflation will decline to 2.2% in 2025 before reaching its lofty 2% target in 2026.
The year began with a massive disruption in the global supply chain and increased cargo costs. There are countless protests occurring among farmers across the world who disagree about the future of crops and food price stability. The leading driver that is not discussed – WAR! America is funding two major conflicts at the moment and sinking deeper into debt. The extreme geopolitical uncertainty and risks associated with war always lead to higher energy prices, increased production costs, and massive government spending, further fueling inflation. armstrongeconomics.com |
