The pundits efforts to evaluate the impact of Saban's retirement have shifted gears from celebration and speculation to observation and analysis... while time has delivered answers fairly quickly.
The new coach is bringing a lot of staff from Washington with him... none of whom have any experience in recruiting in the SEC. And, he's bringing a QB with him from Washington, too... which has Alabama's best of class 5* QB recruit opting out.
He's not the only one. The analysis says... 42% of Alabama's scholarship players, thus far, have either announced for the NFL draft (about 1/4 of them)... or announced for the transfer portal. More are expected to make announcements this weekend. And, then, another open window in the spring... leaves Alabama fans struggling to put a good spin on it.
"About time" that Alabama has to deal with "the same old" as everyone else... is a widely shared opinion. And, Saban's reputation as a bully inside the Conference means he's not going to be missed by the rest. Odds are good Alabama's scheduling problems... and schedule... will become a lot tougher... as there's a legacy there some will feel compelled to correct and compensate for, now.
But, not the end of the analysis. Consensus is the the new Alabama head coach is good enough with quarterbacks... but, the hole created by losing Saban's own strength on the defensive side, will be filled with a defensive coordinator's position that is now a responsibility that's shared... three ways... with none of those three candidates expected to be able to recruit at a high level.
Auburn's Freeze is also taking ownership of his program, this year, and making big moves on the coaching staff. Replacing the OC with Ole Miss' asst head coach Derrick Nix... is a massive win for Auburn... and a huge loss for Kiffen and Ole Miss. The new DC is Charles Kelly... bringing experience at Florida State, Alabama and Tennessee... but coming to Auburn from Colorado, where he was the 2023 National Recruiter of the Year... as the architect of the turnaround there. It appears Auburn finally has "the right crew"... but also the right balance in responsibilities between program leadership, ability in game day duties, and recruiting prowess.
The re-build at Alabama is going to become, of necessity, a "ground up" affair, it seems. Although there are optimists who expect enough player talent will remain next year to keep Alabama competitive, I'm skeptical of that. Given the extent of the disruption... and the lack of definition in any end point... a period of "wandering in the wilderness" seems likely. And, then... is Alabama "the best head coaching job in the country" ? Or, is that expectation largely, if not entirely, built on Saban's reputation... rather than any ability to inherit the advantages it enabled ? Alabama... isn't going to go away... as Auburn has not during its recent string of down years. And, Saban's reputation didn't build itself without being enabled by others. But, Alabama likely has "catching up" to do... as the $ for facilities has lagged competitors... and that might mean the "re-building" takes long enough to test the faith of the Alabama faithful.
The focus of competitors, for now, is on the sudden creation of a "talent rich" portal... and resulting impacts which I expect will not be limited to the region... as much as the peer group in the polls. That is going to advantage many of Alabama's competitors, short term... much as occurred at Texas A&M recently with the coaching change. But, the bigger and longer term impact in the SEC is going to come from the local and regional re-balancing in the recruitment of the kids coming out of the high schools. Auburn and Tennessee are naturally enough expected to be beneficiaries... but, kids from Mississippi, Texas, Florida and Louisiana... may be far more likely to stay home, now.
The rich get richer, they say. Usually... but not always. |
