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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3041)2/17/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: Alec Epting  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Roger, I would have thought the market is long overdue for a crash, but I am beginning to think that 401-K and IRA money is keeping it afloat. As long as the unemployment rate is low and interest rates don't offer a credible alternative, cash will flow into the market automatically from 401-K's. Also, many baby boomers are now entering the ranks of the empty-nesters and are beginning to turn their attention from raising kids to raising retirement funds. Admittedly, the Asian crisis might cause an uptick in the unemployment rate but the Fed might ease interest rates to counteract any slowdown in the economy, so the net effect will probably be a wash as far as stocks go.

Perhaps, the year 2000 scare will cause enough folks to pull their money out of the market at the same time, leading to the much-expected plunge. As for me, I am going long on the y2k stock TPRO (TAVA). They seem to have the only comprehensive solution to embedded systems
around. And this opportunity is much bigger than what we've heard about so far is the IS arena.

I guess what I am trying to say is that we'll see rotation in the market, but not a widespread downdraft. The Asian crisis proved to me that the bulls are still in charge.
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