| | | 2024 picks
Have three I have been building positions in;
UGI target $36
LOCO target $14-$15
APA target $40 (reversion to the mean)
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I posted on UGI earlier this year. Company has hired GS & JPM in October 2023 to seek ways to increase shareholder value, develop strategy to reduce commodity volatility and look at debt reduction. I suspect report will be out soon and will look at regulated vs non-regulated business. I am speculating UGI will spin out AmeriGas (or just sell it) for North of $3.5 Billion. A Graham value play as well as reversion to mean.
(Note) AmeriGas was acquired in full in 2019 but UGI did own a large stake in the company before that. It was a MLP I believe
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LOCO is an undervalued restaurant play; 12x PE little to no growth from current management but lots of potential if acquired. Recently JACK acquired Del Taco (similar market cap to LOCO);
Recent Event - LOCO implemented a As Sardar Biglari buys up stock, El Pollo Loco swallows a poison pill as an insider (Biglari Sardar) acquired 12% interest in the company shares
Rickard in 'Speculating in Takeover Targets' (link bit.ly brought it to my attention.
more details here
Who is Biglari Sardar?
From DATAROMA
Biglari Holdings Inc. CL B (BH) (there is also a Class A Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH.A))
Biglari Holdings Inc., formerly known as The Steak n Shake Company, is engaged primarily in the ownership, operation, and franchising of restaurants in the United States. Steak n Shake Operations, Inc. (Steak n Shake) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company. Steak n Shake is an American brand serving burgers and milk shakes. It offers its patrons full-service dining with counter and dining room seating, as well as drive-thru and carry-out service. Biglari Holdings is based in San Antonio, Texas. My target price is $13-$14 higher if there is a substantial premium paid on a take out. Minimum according to Poison Pill is $13.50. Even at that price, LOCO still at a similar price JACK paid last year for Dell Taco.
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Apa Corp(APA) been accumulating position w/ several buys after the announcement of the all stock deal for CPC. No new Debt and some excellent assets. Have a price target of $45/share reversion to mean) and much higher if this ever trades back to 2010-2015 prices $80-$90.
I like the all stock deal as combined debt not too bad.
APA Corp. is one of the world's leading independent energy companies engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Geographically, the company's operations are in the U.S., Egypt and in the North Sea of the U.K. APA also holds acreage in offshore Suriname (S. America) & other international locations. In the U.S., the upstream player mainly operates in the prolific Permian Basin. One of the largest oil producers in Permian, APA operates oil and gas wells in the region, with exposure to Midland Basin, Delaware Basin, Central Basin Platform/ Northwestern Shelf. APA's major find is Alpine High located in the southern portion of the Delaware Basin will likely be the key volume growth driver in the years to come. APA is also involved in the midstream business through its minority stake in Permian-focused Altus Midstream Company. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still waiting for this to get to my Buy target as another NG driller that looks like a value opportunity
Equinor ASA ADR(EQNR)
This looks like a good complement to my other Oil & NG positions. Most of my exposure is from domestic Oil & Gas drillers except for CVX my no 1 holding since late 1990's.
8% div at 6x PE good value too!
Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. It engaged in developing oil, gas, wind and solar energy projects and focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor ASA, formerly known as Statoil ASA, is based in Norway, Europe. |
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