COTS as of January 23, 2024
Precious Metals Consolidate While Indices Make New Highs - FOMC up next week
The commercials reduced their net short positions in both gold and silver. See here and here and here.
Gold is still working off its overbought position trading off its all time highs at $2029.30 consolidating above its 200 dma. The HUI moved sideways this week still trading below its 200 dma and approaching oversold territory.
In contrast, silver bounced from its recent low of $22 and closed the week at $22.87. Copper moved upward along with silver closing the week at $3.85 and trading above its 200 dma. (I've included the the 5 year charts of gold, silver and, just for fun, copper in this post to show the big picture.)
Platinum and palladium spent the week consolidating above their recent lows. It's worth noting that palladium's recent low was a 52 week low as well. The PALL chart is the weaker of the two. Chen Li has said in his two presentations, this year and last year, at the Vancouver Resource Conference that he trades platinum on the futures market buying whenever PLAT is below $1,000 and selling when it is above $1,000.
WTIC continued its strong move upward from its recent low of $68 closing the week at $78.01. Natgas had a small bounce and is back at its low of $2.17. Gareth Soloway was buying again.
The US$ spent the week consolidating around 103.23. The yield on the 10 year US treasury continued its move off its recent lows, but ended the week flat closing at 4.15 again. Gareth Soloway is still calling for the yield to settle around 4.5%. The FOMC meets this week on Jan 30th and 31st. We will see if their announcement affects both the US$ and the yield on the 10 year treasury as Fed officials seem to be talking both up.
All of the market indices, the DOW, SPX, QQQ and TSX made new highs again with the TSX pulling back towards the end of the week. The SPX and QQQ are in overbought territory. The DOW and TSX are not yet overbought.
Ed Steer's comments:
On gold:
"From a COMEX futures market perspective, the set-up in gold is market neutral at best -- and my concern is still whether or not 'da boyz' can engineer the gold price down through its 200-day moving average."
On silver:
"From a COMEX futures market perspective, the set-up for a major rally in silver is back to being wildly bullish."
Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:
cftc.gov
Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:
cftc.gov |
