AMD 2023-Q4 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results
| Reported Results: | $0.77 | $6.17B | $5.40B ± 0.30B | | Rank | User | EPS | Revenue | Outlook | | - | Zacks Estimate | $0.77 | $6.11B | $5.72B | | 1 | Vattila | $0.78 | $6.12B | $6.50B | | - | Bing Chat | $0.75 | $6.10B | $3.20B | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | $0.80 | $6.20B | $6.30B | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | $0.80 | $6.50B | $6.90B | | 4 | neolib | $0.81 | $6.30B | $6.80B | | 5 | Joe NYC | $0.82 | $6.50B | $6.70B | | 6 | rzborusa | $0.86 | $6.65B | $7.00B |
Here are the contest results. On EPS, Zacks hit bullseye, with me just behind. Bing Chat did well to follow. Pravin edges ahead of Kelvin for second rank, scoring best of us on both revenue and outlook. The rest of the pack trails behind with overly optimistic entries.
On the full-year scoreboard, where every category has equal weight, Zacks cements its top spot, while Pravin overtakes Neolib for the best overall ranked score. I manage to climb to second place, with Neolib closely behind in third. Congrats to Pravin for his first full-year win!
Alas, we were unable to beat Zacks for the full year. They tend to do better when results disappoint. This year, growth is set to return, from the low expectations set for the first quarter, so hopefully we'll have Zacks beat again soon!
Thanks to all for playing!
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Scoreboards
Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.
AMD 2023 EPS Contest Scores
| 2023 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.66 | 0.8390 | | 1 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 0.7938 | | 2 | Vattila | 4 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.46 | 0.7759 | | 3 | neolib | 4 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.7735 | | - | Bing Chat | 4 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.7457 | | 4 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.46 | 0.7375 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.41 | 0.7220 | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.95 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.6850 |
AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores
| 2022 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 6 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 7 | gvatty | 2 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.3848 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.1038 |
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| | 2022 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.7895 | | 1 | gvatty | 2 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.7696 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.7618 | | 3 | neolib | 4 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.7617 | | 4 | Vattila | 4 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.51 | 0.7390 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.7371 | | 6 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.7020 | | 7 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 0.6925 | | 8 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.4153 |
AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores
| 2021 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 2 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 3 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 4 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 5 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 6 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 7 | neolib | 3 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.6614 | | 8 | engineer | 1 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.2111 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.1852 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.1556 |
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| | 2021 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | neolib | 3 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.8819 | | 2 | engineer | 1 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.8445 | | 3 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 4 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.8397 | | 4 | Joe NYC | 4 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.8367 | | 5 | rzborusa | 4 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.8105 | | 6 | Pravin Kamdar | 4 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.8101 | | 7 | gvatty | 4 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.8068 | | 8 | Vattila | 4 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.7966 | | 9 | fastpathguru | 1 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.7408 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.6694 | | 10 | eetnoyer | 1 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 0.6222 |
AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores
| 2020 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 2 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 3 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.6128 | | 4 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.5812 | | 5 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.2150 | | 6 | jc474 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.2020 |
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| | 2020 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User | Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | Kelvin C.P. Wang | 1 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.8601 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar | 3 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.8171 | | 3 | Vattila | 4 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.8169 | | 4 | jc474 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.8080 | | 5 | neolib | 4 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.7972 | | - | Zacks Estimate | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.7856 | | 6 | rzborusa | 3 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.7749 |
AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores
| 2019 Full year scores |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | - | Zacks Estimate | | | | 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 1 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 2 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 3 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.7106 | | 4 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.6977 | | 5 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.4496 | | 6 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.3822 | | 7 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.2468 | | 8 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.2199 | | 9 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.2058 |
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| | 2019 Quarterly average |
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| | Rank | User |
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| Entries | EPS score | Revenue score | Outlook score | Overall score | | 1 | THE WATSONYOUTH |
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| 1 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.9871 | | - | Zacks Estimate | | | | 4 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.9708 | | 2 | rzborusa |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.9475 | | 3 | neolib |
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| 3 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.9303 | | 4 | Vattila |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.9264 | | 5 | Pravin Kamdar |
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| 4 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.9258 | | 6 | knykny |
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| 2 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.8991 | | 7 | FUBHO |
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| 1 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.8796 | | 8 | Harvey Allen |
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| 1 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.8230 | | 9 | gzubeck |
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| 2 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.7643 |
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