Republican policy loser stocks by sectors - GS
Jan. 31, 2024 1:42 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
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Goldman Sachs analysts outlined sectors and respective stocks that could underperform during a Republican presidential win, as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
In their “Republican policy underperformers basket,” GS analysts have selected stocks that would lag if a Trump-led Republican House takes over.
Republican policy underperformers by sector or section of the economy:
Wage pressure - Companies with wage pressure could face additional challenges if foreign employees expect stricter work permits.
In this category: Best Buy ( BBY), Marriot International ( MAR), Brinker International ( EAT), Hilton Grand Vacations ( HGV), Kroger ( KR), Dollar Tree ( DLTR), Dollar General Corp. ( DG), Universal Health Services ( UHS), Tenet Healthcare Corp. ( THC), HCA Healthcare ( HCA), AMN Healthcare Services ( AMN), Community Health Systems ( CYH), Cross Country Health ( CCRN).
Consumer discretionary (NYSEARCA: XLY) with tariff risk - This includes the consumer industry with the largest exposure to tariffs due to exposure to China supply chain or with a heavy global manufacturing
footprint.
In this category, stocks are YETI Holdings ( YETI), Under Armour ( UAA), Urban Outfitters ( URBN), Skechers USA ( SKX), American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO), Ralph Lauren Corp. ( RL), PVH Corp. ( PVH), Williams-Sonoma ( WSM), The Gap ( GPS), Floor & Décor Holdings ( DKS), NIKE Inc. ( NKE), SharkNinja Inc. ( SN), Steven Madden ( SHOO), National Vision Holdings ( EYE), Target Corp. ( TGT).
Industrial (NYSEARCA: XLI) with tariff risk - Machinery.
In this category: Ingersoll Rand ( IR), Emerson Electric ( EMR), Illinois Tool Works Inc. ( ITW), 3M Co. ( MMM), Graco Inc. ( GGG), ITT Inc. ( ITT), The Timken Co. ( TKR), Flowserve Corp. ( FLS), Kennametal Inc. ( KMT).
Technology ( XLK) with tariff risk - Semiconductors.
In this category: Qorvo ( QRVO), Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS), NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM), Qualcomm Inc. ( QCOM), ASE Technology Holdings ( ASX).
Electric vehicles - This sector could be at risk in 2025 when policy makers are expected to extend tax cuts, and Republicans could vote against EV benefits.
In this category: Lear Corp. ( LEA), XPeng Inc. ( XPEV), NIO Inc. ( NIO), Ford Motor Co. ( F), General Motors ( GM), Rivian Automotive ( RIVN), Tesla ( TSLA), Gentherm Inc. ( THRM).
Clean electricity - A Republican White House could put at risk IRA benefits, including clean energy production credits, targeted to companies that hit green standards.
In this category: Waste Management ( WM), NextEra Energy Partners ( NEP), DTE Energy ( DTE), AES Corp. ( AES), CMS Energy Corp. ( CMS), Public Service Enterprise Group ( PEG), Xcel Energy ( XEL), PG&E Corp. ( PCG), NextEra Energy ( NEE).
Defense - Trump has expressed preference towards geopolitical deal-making rather than escalating tensions.
In this category: Science Applications International ( SAIC), CACI International ( CACI), Huntington Ingalls Industries ( HII), Leidos Holdings ( LDOS), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding ( BAH), L3Harris Technologies ( LHX), General Dynamics Corp. ( GD), Northrop Grumman Corp. ( NOC), Lockheed Martin Corp. ( LMT), RTX Corp. ( RTX), Teledyne Technologies ( TDY).
Battery storage - A change to the IRA could negatively affect stocks that benefit from battery storage standards.
In this category: Fluence Energy ( FLNC), SolarEdge Technologies ( SEDG), Sunrun Inc. ( RUN), First Solar Inc. ( FSLR), Enphase Energy ( ENPH).
Carbon credit beneficiary - Timber REITs that could be affected from carbon credits rollbacks.
In this category: Weyerhaeuser Co. ( WY), Rayonier Inc. ( RYN), PotlatchDeltic Corp. ( PCH).
Green hydrogen - IRA’s 45V premium tax credit benefits blue and green hydrogen industries.
In this category: CF Industries Holdings ( CF), Air Products and Chemicals ( APD), Linde Plc. ( LIN).
Energy efficiency - Companies that benefit from credits for electricity with less or no greenhouse gas emissions.
In this category: Carrier Global Corp. ( CARR), Trane Technologies ( TT), Johnson Controls International ( JCI). |
