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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Julius Wong who wrote (91593)	2/3/2024 10:27:25 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) of 95525

This is what I have been thinking for a while now. That the equipment and materials should be doing a lot better than the chip makers. Governments are providing subsidies and incentives for onshoring. So companies have to build fabs even as the current cycle is unsupportive of it. This will ripple through for at least several years and disrupt the regular cycle as new facilities come online out of cycle. Another important subject is the limits on feature size. TSM is working on "one nano meter" process. This is of course nothing but marketing BS. To my knowledge nobody has built gates smaller than 14nm. Nor can the distances between channels be reduced much further (I think the limit is ~50nm?). So we are hitting the physical limits. I've not seen this discussed, likely because it is longer term than than most of wall street cares about, and also because there is no incentive for this discussion. But any further progress has to come from materials, 3D stacking, or for practical purposes, chip architecture or the classic semiconductor engineering is over after this generation.

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