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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.36

+2.2%

Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (91618)	2/5/2024 1:04:51 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) of 95520

I don't think nVidia chips are "so much better." They maybe better, but not by so much. Or they maybe the same. Or someone else may come up with a much better chip soon (many are at silicon testing phase). But regardless, a "better chip" is not going to kill nVidia because the demand for their chips is not due to them having better hardware. People buy nVidia because of CUDA and the software ecosystem nVidia has nurtured over the years. The real threat to nVidia is that IBM and AMD are now involved with Pytorch and will erode nVidia's moat. If I were to peer into my crystal ball and read the chronicles of NVDA's collapse (the stock, not the company), I would say that none of the contenders will manage to catch up to nVidia. But good enough chips supporting Pytorch and other libraries make nVidia one of several options. And this will coincide with supply glut and overbuilding (say in about 3 years?)...and they all will go home as losers. Of course it may not happen that way and nVidia may remain the king of the hill just like how INTC dominates the PC market or CSCO owns the networks, and eBay has a lock on online shopping...is YHOO still the main search engine?

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