| | | Apologies for the delay, due to the draft email disappearing on me (which, I know, sounds suspiciously like “my dog ate may homework).
Well it’s Groundhog Day (or it was). I’m not sure what sort of rodent we need to ask if we can expect a continuation of the biotech investor winter. The biotech indices for the week aren’t very encouraging, down by -0.5% and -0.2%, while the NASDAQ Composite laid in a comfortable gain of 1.1%.
Considering the individual contest selections, LRMR was number one for the week, +28%. Third place LPTX’s return (+22%) erased its previous week’s loss (-18%), and although still in the red YTD (-19%) it is no longer among the bottom five YTD performers. This week’s performance of fourth place NERV (+21%) landed it in the third place YTD spot (+54%). And in fifth, LXRX (+20%) added to last week’s +34% gain, perhaps due to a second callout by Motley Fool in as many weeks. For this week it was one of 3 Under-the-Radar Stocks With 340% to 762% Upside in 2024, According to Select Wall Street Analysts a different trio than the previous week’s 3 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet in 2024, Well its something more than the radio silence for the other big gainers this week.
On the loser’s side, the worst for the week is GRTS (-22%). Of note was the fourth worst loser, PYXS (-15%), perhaps only a correction to the previous week’s pop of +90%. In any case not enough to dislodge from the top YTD spot (+104%). And CNSP in fifth worst (-13%) just piled on to a series of “worst five” appearances to keep it as the worst YTD performer (-80%). This time there was some specific news: the pricing, Monday, of a $4 million public placement at $0.30 a share. It closed last week at $0.42, but after the offer pricing the market reacted by dropping below that price, finishing the week at $0.25. So what had been a 28% discount before the pricing by the end of the week the offering was running at a 25% premium over the market. Only the inclusion of two warrants, both at $0.30, and immediately exercisable, gives any reason to respond to the offering. I’m curious if the offering is going to be fully subscribed (and is there an underwriter in this case left holding the bag?)
This week as a general winner for the contestants, adding +$1.9k to the average portfolio. And even if not as good as the previous week’s it pushed the average portfolio to +$2.3k YTD. Unfortunately, the good news was not shared uniformly, such that the median YTD portfolio dropped from $580 to $490 and the number of portfolios in the black YTD slipped from 11 to 9.
The best performing portfolio was ARTHUR RADLEY (+$9.7k), rising from seventh to third YTD, who achieved this without selecting any of the top five performers for the week or YTD. So you don’t need flash, just an eye for solid performers. Just behind was ERIKOTTO (+$9.6k). They unfortunately are still in second place YTD (+$18.6k), as BULBAMAN was in third for the week (+$6.8k), enough to hold on to the top spot YTD (+$22.5k), though the gap between BULBAMAN and ERIKOTTO has narrowed to $3.9k.
TECHNETIUM’s fourth place return for the week (+$3.9k), was enough to put them back in the top eight YTD at seventh place (+$4.5k).
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| 1/26/24
| 2/2/24
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| YTD
| 12/31/2023
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| $1,156.40
| 1.1%
| $4,114.23
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| ^NBI
| -$487.27
| -0.5%
| $373.65
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| ^SPSIBI
| -$223.74
| -0.2%
| -$1,486.63
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| LRMR
| 27.7%
| GRTS
| -22.1%
| PYXS
| 104.4%
| CNSP
| -80.3%
| ALLO
| 25.2%
| KZIA
| -15.7%
| PMN
| 80.0%
| FHTX
| -54.1%
| LPTX
| 22.2%
| SLDB
| -15.6%
| NERV
| 53.5%
| RVNC
| -38.9%
| NERV
| 21.1%
| PYXS
| -15.0%
| JSPR
| 52.5%
| KZIA
| -38.3%
| LXRX
| 20.3%
| CNSP
| -13.4%
| TARA
| 50.9%
| PACB
| -31.2%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| $1,886.68
| $936.24
| STEVE LOKNESS
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| $2,332.12
| $492.68
| JACK HARTMANN
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - ARTHUR RADLEY (7)
| $9,719.36
| $9,943.09
| $12,794.30 (3)
| 1 - BULBAMAN (1)
| $22,529.16
| ——
| $24,015.79
| $6,838.50 (3)
| 2 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| $9,556.69
| $9,780.43
| $18,586.31 (2)
| 2 - ERIKOTTO (2)
| $18,586.31
| $3,942.85
| $20,072.94
| $9,556.69 (2)
| 3 - BULBAMAN (8)
| $6,838.50
| $7,062.23
| $22,529.16 (1)
| 3 - ARTHUR RADLEY (7)
| $12,794.30
| $9,734.85
| $14,280.94
| $9,719.36 (1)
| 4 - TECHNETIUM (11)
| $3,942.63
| $4,166.36
| $4,518.29 (7)
| 4 - RAJU_BIJLEE (5)
| $7,459.35
| $15,069.81
| $8,945.98
| $3,510.20 (6)
| 5 - A. J. MULLEN (14)
| $3,533.03
| $3,756.76
| -$8,371.87 (16)
| 5 - JR_95 (3)
| $6,713.04
| $15,816.11
| $8,199.68
| $1,116.88 (8)
| 6 - RAJU_BIJLEE (5)
| $3,510.20
| $3,733.94
| $7,459.35 (4)
| 6 - TRACE I11 (4)
| $5,281.23
| $17,247.93
| $6,767.86
| -$246.26 (12)
| 7 - BLADERUNNER (13)
| $1,245.17
| $1,468.90
| $2,945.55 (8)
| 7 - TECHNETIUM (9)
| $4,518.29
| $18,010.87
| $6,004.92
| $3,942.63 (4)
| 8 - JR_95 (3)
| $1,116.88
| $1,340.62
| $6,713.04 (5)
| 8 - BLADERUNNER (8)
| $2,945.55
| $19,583.61
| $4,432.18
| $1,245.17 (7)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Top Recent Performance Portfolio (ARTHUR RADLEY)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BULBAMAN)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| AKYA
| 15.00%
| 15.6% | 17.0%
| $2,551.23
| $2,643.44
| 5.7%
| CU6.AX
| 20.00%
| 19.0% | 16.3%
| $3,257.48
| -$127.87
| 4.3%
| EOLS
| 10.00%
| 11.3% | 27.9%
| $2,792.02
| $1,452.99
| 7.8%
| CYTH
| 10.00%
| 9.6% | 18.2%
| $1,823.90
| $1,069.18
| 8.5%
| EYEN
| 20.00%
| 15.4% | -13.0%
| -$2,596.15
| $1,923.08
| 5.7%
| LRMR
| 10.00%
| 11.0% | 35.2%
| $3,516.48
| $2,769.23
| 7.4%
| KALV
| 20.00%
| 22.0% | 24.2%
| $4,848.98
| $3,020.41
| 4.0%
| PMN
| 10.00%
| 14.7% | 80.0%
| $8,000.00
| $510.43
| 5.6%
| LQDA
| 10.00%
| 10.0% | 12.9%
| $1,288.45
| $1,172.07
| 8.9%
| SNGX
| 10.00%
| 7.1% | -13.3%
| -$1,328.95
| $646.05
| 11.5%
| OABI
| 5.00%
| 4.2% | -6.2%
| -$307.94
| -$324.15
| 21.3%
| TCON
| 10.00%
| 9.2% | 12.5%
| $1,250.71
| -$571.10
| 8.9%
| STTK
| 10.00%
| 12.0% | 34.9%
| $3,492.29
| -$434.78
| 7.4%
| TLX.AX
| 15.00%
| 14.0% | 14.1%
| $2,108.40
| $866.05
| 5.8%
| ZYXI
| 10.00%
| 9.5% | 7.3%
| $725.44
| $266.30
| 9.3%
| VKTX
| 15.00%
| 15.4% | 26.0%
| $3,901.13
| $1,676.52
| 5.3%
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