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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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E_K_S
To: E_K_S who wrote (75057)2/6/2024 10:14:39 AM
From: Sean Collett1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 78752
 
If 2024 revenue recovers over 2023 then I see a value somewhere in the range of $12-14/s with a higher interest expense. If revenue doesn't see a boost then value is much lower.

Right now 2023 revenue looks to have declined to around $3.2B from $3.6B in 2022 - which makes sense as it is not a political year. With political season heating up and Meredith in their network this should boost 2024 revenue.

Now if retransmission revenue starts to grow due to cable nets & regional sports declining this will give a company like GTN a big boost. They mentioned in their investor presentation that is just 1/2 of RSN fees were reallocated to broadcast stations it would lift current retransmission revenue by $3B.

Which leads to your point on sports.

IMO this isn't a Buffett stock where you hold for 10 years so I am constantly assessing what is working.

My target based on today is $12-14/s ($14 being unlikely but doable). As cable channels decline & sports transition to local broadcast then there's further potential. I mean if Gray is doing $3.2-$3.6B in revenue now and they state that if only half the regional sports fees were reallocated to broadcasting it would increase retransmission revenue by $3B then that's some runway.

-Sean
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