| | | Excerpt from lengthy article that also covers early signs of major LT Nat Gas bottom, before I log off for the day. Thanks again for your very informative post. UR welcome to post here any time.
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<Signs of a Possible Reversal Emerge
Nevertheless, there are some technical signs that suggest that the room for decline may be limited and a reversal in the coming days is not ruled out.
What do I mean by that? Let's take a look at the chart below.
From this closer perspective, we see that the price action from Jan.25 to Feb.8 can be summarized as a flag pattern (as a reminder, this formation has actually worked perfectly on copper [you could read more about it in my article published on Feb.1st] and also on oil stocks in recent days).
As you see, the size of this week's downward move corresponded to the first part of the formation (both parts marked with blue rectangles), achieving a minimum range of movement, which suggests that the bears may want to take profits in this area - especially when we factor in the strong support marked on the monthly chart - the green supportive gap (1.80-1.86), which serves as the key support for the bulls.
At this point, it is worth nothing, that the first test of this support took place in Sep.2020, but as you see on the long-term chart, it withstood the selling pressure and triggered a rebound, which resulted in further improvement in the following months. Therefore, taking into account the fact that history tends to repeat itself, it seems that we could see a similar price action in the near future (even if the bears test the lower line of the gap first).
Additionally, when we take a closer look at the current position of the daily indicators, we see that there are positive divergences between the CCI, the Stochastic Oscillator, and the price, which in combination with buy signals generates by both indicators suggests that reversal may be just around the corner.
On top of that, when we focus on the weekly volume, we notice that despite subsequent red candles, the volume is decreasing week by week, suggesting that the bears' involvement in deepening the declines is decreasing.
Connecting the dots, if the bulls close ranks and are able to close today's session (and thus the entire week) above Apr.14, 2023 low, the chance of a rebound will increase. If they failed, a test of the lower border of the above-mentioned gap should not surprise us.
Summing up, the buyers' weakness at the beginning of the week lured the bears, who showed their claws and they implemented the pro-declining scenario from last week. Despite the fresh multi-month low, there are first technical signals on the horizon suggesting that the room for declines may be limited and a reversal may be just around the corner.> |
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