CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace

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To: Perspective who wrote (40104)	2/19/2024 8:47:39 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) of 41470

FWIW, I did a monthly chart of TLT, the 20 year bond - with a 55 month ma. Clearly, it broke down in early 2020 - and since, traced out what appears to be a fairly convincing 5 wave impulsive decline (which suggests that there will be more down moves). The bounce since last year’s low corresponds to a higher high on RSI (suggesting that the bounce is not over yet). So, we’re likely to see a new upswing in this TLT bounce - before the larger new down trend asserts itself again. Many years ago, for a period, I was very interested in the Kondratiev cycles - but then, between work and life in general, it moved into the background. It’s interesting that you see a coming “season change” based on the behavior of the long bond. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Do you expect yet another bubble in everything, or is all that in the past? And also, could you recommend a good Kondratiev refresher?

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