| | | Bitcoin Halving
On April 19, 2024, the 4th Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur, and as a result, the reward for solving a block will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin. This reduction in supply has historically resulted in major price swings for the cryptocurrency in the year prior to the event and the year following the event.
The first Bitcoin halving event occurred on November 28, 2012, and on that date, Bitcoin was trading at $12. A year prior to the event, Bitcoin was trading at $3 which means that the cryptocurrency climbed 300% during that period. By the end of 2012, Bitcoin was trading at $13, however, it was trading at $42 100 days after the halving occurred. This strong upward movement continued in the year following the halving as Bitcoin was trading at $1016 on November 28, 2013, meaning that Bitcoin increased by 8367% since the halving event or 33767% since the year prior to the halving.
1st Halving (28 Nov 2012)
| Price On Nov 28, 2011
| $3
| Price On Nov 28, 2012
| $12
| Price At EoY
| $13
| Price 100 Days Later
| $42
| Price Nov 28 2013
| $1,016
|
The same trend can be seen during the second halving event, which occurred on July 9, 2016. On that date, Bitcoin was trading at $647, while it was trading at $268 on July 9, 2015, meaning that it increased by 141% during that period. By the end of 2016, Bitcoin was trading at $967, a 49.4% increase since the halving event, and continued to increase in 2017 as it reached $2491 on July 9, 2017, 1 year since the halving event.
2nd Halving (July 9, 2016)
| Price on Jul 9 2015
| $268
| Price On Jul 9 2016
| $647
| Price At EoY
| $967
| Price on Jul 9 2017
| $2,491
|
This trend persisted during the third halving event which occurred on May 11, 2020, where Bitcoin was trading at $8563, increasing by 18% from $7232 a year prior. But by the end of 2020, Bitcoin had increased by 239% to $29 thousand, and continued climbing in 2021 as it reached more than $56 thousand on May 11, 2021, climbing 561% since the halving event.
3rd Halving (May 11, 2020)
| Price on May 11, 2019
| $7,232
| Price On May 11, 2020
| $8,563
| Price At EoY
| $29,000
| Price on May 11, 2021
| $56,565
|
So far, it appears to be likely that the trend will occur with the upcoming 4th Bitcoin halving. On a YTD basis, Bitcoin is up nearly 16%, however, the cryptocurrency is up by more than 67% since April 19, 2023, when it was trading at nearly $29 thousand. Based on this, there is a chance Bitcoin breaks past $100 thousand by the end of 2024 which would be a major catalyst for the whole Bitcoin mining sector.
During the past 3 halving events, Bitcoin increased on average by 298% since the year prior to the halving until the end of the year of the halving. In this way, Bitcoin could be trading at more than $192 thousand. That being said, this projection could be very optimistic and may not come to fruition.
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