Being out of town from mid-week to Sunday has delayed this week’s report. The spreadsheet part was only a matter of minutes, so I could have just sent it out, maybe saying “Yay for ERIKOTTO!” But it turned out that there a few interesting nuggets worth commenting on, particularly given some recent market moves.
What with the Fed hemming and hawing on when (or even whether) Interest rates will actually be cut, and a general sense that "this market can’t just keep going up, can it?” It wasn’t a terrific week for the general indices. The NASDAQ Composite in particular slid back -1.3%, but since it still shows a YTD improvement of +5.1% I don’t think this week is any reason not to think that Happy Days Are (generally) Here Again. And besides, it was a good week for biotechs, especially as measured by the S&P biotech composite, up 2.4% for the week, and with a YTD profit of +4.4% starting to catch up with the NASDAQ Composite.
When we start looking at the individual contest selections, the big movers and losers included a number of familiar faces. At the top of the charts for the week, we have LRMR up +110% of its price at contest start, moving it from fifth to second in terms of YTD performance (+181%). Most of its gain was in the first half of the week building on the previous week’s return of +35%, which had no particular news associated with it. But THIS week, on the other hand, things were busy. On Monday they released some Top-line data from a Phase 2 study of dosage levels that they found was encouraging enough that they have initiated discussions with the FDA with an eye to an accelerated approval targeted for the second half of next year. On Tuesday, they announced a proposed underwritten Public Offering. On Wednesday they priced the offering of 17.1 million shares at $8.74 a share, or gross proceeds of approximately $150 million before expenses, commissions, and discounts to the underwriters. And on Friday they announced the closure of the offering. The closing price for the week was $12.75, so the offering represented a discount of 31%, consistent with the speed at which the offering filled.
PYXS was in second for the week, +54%, enough to keep it ahead of LRMR, and in the first place YTD, a very impressive tripling of its price at the start of the contest. TARA in third for the week (+54%) now appears at fourth for the YTD (+116%), and LXRX at fourth (+52%) is now fifth YTD (+108%). LXRX, you might recall, was mentioned twice in some Motley Fool assessments a few weeks back.
And in fifth place, BTAI gained +48%, more than covering the previous week’s loss of -32%. You might recall the previous week’s drop might be ascribed to the less than thrilled response of the market to the announcement of a proposed then unpriced public share offering. Well for this week, the only news was that BTAI had decided to cancel the public offering, which I guess is a net win for the shareholders,
Last weeks big loser was GTHX, which at the beginning of the week was running +50% of its starting price and then swung into the red as it endured a loss of -70% of the original price. On Monday they had announced that they had been given the go ahead to take a”pivotal” Phase 3 Trial of a cancer treatment to conclusion, and then on Thursday they announced the date of the release of Q4 results on Feb 28. Not sure why this should result in such a big plunge in value.
And then there is AUPH (off -27% for the week). Before the week began an analyst report (“Zacks”) opined that earnings were expected to exceed expectations. But the actual earnings report on Thursday in fact did in fact NOT meet the analyst expectations. In addition, it seems that AUPH had been attempting to find a buyer for the last eight months, without success after engaging more than sixty possible parties. As a result they announced that they would stop development and ongoing trials, cut jobs, and buy back shares. This week's loss made them the fourth worst YTD performer, -35%.
Another good week for the contestants, adding +$4.2k to the average portfolio, so that at this point the total return for the year is, on average, +$12.5k. But there was some variation for the individual portfolios. Only ten managed to be the black for the week, but the number of profitable YTD portfolios actually managed to INCREASE to twelve (although that twelfth one has a current profit of $8.51 (sic)).
In first place for the week is ERIKOTTO, up a phenomenal $29k for just this week, increasing the value of their first place YTD standing to +$64k, and increasing their advantage over BULBAMAN to $16k. That their selections included BOTH LRMR and PYXS had a lot to do with this, but again they had only a single selection in the red.
In second for the week was TOMATO (+$20k), allowing them to leap from 9th to fourth YTD (+$24k). Their success was also due to holding two of the top five stocks for the week, TARA and BTAI, but similar to ERIKOTTO, the performance of the rest of their portfolio is important as well.
JR_95’s seventh place gain for the week bumped them up a spot to sixth YTD (+$16k).
Report Time Ranges
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| Recent
| 2/9/2024
| 2/16/2024
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| YTD
| 12/31/2023
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| Index Portfolios’ Performance
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| Symbol
| Recent P/L
| Recent %
| YTD P/L
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| ^IXIC
| -$1,432.32
| -1.3%
| $5,091.49
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| ^NBI
| $795.93
| 0.8%
| $939.55
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| ^SPSIBI
| $2,405.73
| 2.4%
| $4,357.23
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| Share Performance
| Recent Performance
| YTD Performance
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| Top Five
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| Bottom Five
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| Top Five
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| Bottom 5
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L / Initial Price
| Symbol
| YTD P/L/ Initial Price
| LRMR
| 110.3%
| GTHX
| -70.5%
| PYXS
| 202.8%
| CNSP
| -77.6%
| PYXS
| 53.9%
| NERV
| -31.5%
| LRMR
| 180.9%
| PACB
| -41.5%
| TARA
| 53.9%
| AUPH
| -27.1%
| JSPR
| 140.1%
| RVNC
| -36.7%
| LXRX
| 51.6%
| BCAB
| -19.9%
| TARA
| 116.5%
| AUPH
| -34.9%
| BTAI
| 47.5%
| ALT
| -14.9%
| LXRX
| 107.8%
| VERU
| -32.8%
| Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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| Recent P/L
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| YTD P/L
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| Avg.
| Median
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| Avg
| Median
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| $4,248.54
| $2,990.85
| STEVE LOKNESS
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| $12,542.96
| $6,248.66
| DEW_DILIGENCE
| Top Seven Portfolio Performances
| Top Recent Performers
| Top YTD Performers
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| Recent P/L
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| YTD P/L (Rank)
| Contestant (Prev. Rank)
| YTD P/L
| vs. Top Portfolio
| P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
| Rec. P/L (Rank)
| 1 - ERIKOTTO (2)
| $29,330.66
| $26,924.92
| $64,025.97 (1)
| 1 - ERIKOTTO (1)
| $64,025.97
| ——
| $59,668.74
| $29,330.66 (1)
| 2 - TOMATO (8)
| $20,158.48
| $17,752.75
| $24,186.05 (4)
| 2 - BULBAMAN (2)
| $47,922.48
| $16,103.50
| $43,565.24
| $14,626.00 (3)
| 3 - BULBAMAN (5)
| $14,626.00
| $12,220.27
| $47,922.48 (2)
| 3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (4)
| $24,979.37
| $39,046.60
| $20,622.13
| $5,094.84 (6)
| 4 - KATHLEEN (14)
| $10,854.85
| $8,449.12
| $4,312.13 (10)
| 4 - TOMATO (9)
| $24,186.05
| $39,839.93
| $19,828.81
| $20,158.48 (2)
| 5 - ALONER (12)
| $5,531.41
| $3,125.68
| $401.29 (11)
| 5 - BLADERUNNER (3)
| $19,704.15
| $44,321.82
| $15,346.91
| -$1,871.84 (13)
| 6 - RAJU_BIJLEE (3)
| $5,094.84
| $2,689.11
| $24,979.37 (3)
| 6 - JR_95 (7)
| $16,224.54
| $47,801.44
| $11,867.30
| $4,514.11 (7)
| 7 - JR_95 (7)
| $4,514.11
| $2,108.37
| $16,224.54 (6)
| 7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (5)
| $13,586.54
| $50,439.43
| $9,229.31
| -$2,705.90 (14)
| 8 - DEW_DILIGENCE (10)
| $3,909.74
| $1,504.01
| $6,248.66 (9)
| 8 - TECHNETIUM (6)
| $12,432.96
| $51,593.02
| $8,075.72
| -$2,889.88 (15)
| Top Portfolios’ Contents
| Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (TOMATO)
| Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| Symbol (Rank)
| Initial Allocation
| Value/Total | ROI
| YTD Stock P/L
| Recent Stock P/L
| % Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
| BTAI
| 10.00%
| 9.6% | 19.0%
| $1,898.31
| $4,745.76
| 8.4%
| GLTO
| 10.00%
| 5.9% | -2.6%
| -$261.11
| $1,126.39
| 10.3%
| CCCC
| 10.00%
| 11.4% | 41.2%
| $4,123.89
| $3,238.94
| 7.1%
| INSM
| 10.00%
| 5.8% | -4.8%
| -$477.57
| $406.58
| 10.5%
| HROW
| 20.00%
| 15.3% | -4.7%
| -$946.43
| -$232.14
| 5.2%
| LIFE
| 15.00%
| 13.1% | 43.3%
| $6,489.36
| $531.91
| 4.7%
| NVAX
| 10.00%
| 7.0% | -13.3%
| -$1,333.33
| $270.83
| 11.5%
| LRMR
| 15.00%
| 25.7% | 180.9%
| $27,131.87
| $16,549.45
| 2.4%
| NVCT
| 10.00%
| 7.3% | -9.8%
| -$983.21
| $995.20
| 11.1%
| OCUL
| 15.00%
| 15.5% | 70.0%
| $10,493.27
| $6,390.13
| 3.9%
| OCUL
| 10.00%
| 13.7% | 70.0%
| $6,995.52
| $4,260.09
| 5.9%
| PYXS
| 5.00%
| 9.2% | 202.8%
| $10,138.89
| $2,694.44
| 6.6%
| TARA
| 10.00%
| 17.4% | 116.5%
| $11,652.18
| $5,386.38
| 4.6%
| SERA
| 5.00%
| 4.9% | 62.4%
| $3,118.73
| $1,020.07
| 12.3%
| TCON
| 10.00%
| 8.6% | 6.7%
| $668.19
| -$62.82
| 9.4%
| TNYA
| 10.00%
| 11.9% | 95.1%
| $9,506.17
| $1,975.31
| 5.1%
| TERN
| 10.00%
| 9.8% | 21.1%
| $2,110.94
| $1,556.24
| 8.3%
| TPST
| 15.00%
| 7.9% | -14.1%
| -$2,113.64
| -$1,363.64
| 7.8%
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