| | | More good news for both the market in general and for biotechs. In fact, things are looking pretty positive by almost any measure for the contestants. Even the poorest statistic, the median portfolio YTD performance, is running +$7.9k in the black. But it’s worth remembering that last year also started with a pretty upbeat first quarter, only to take almost all that profit away in the rest of the year.
U.S. markets were closed on Monday, so for most issues this is a four day week. The NASDAQ Composite Index was up 1.4% for the week, but still less than both of the biotech indices. The YTD of the S&P biotech composite is getting close to the general NASDAQ performance.
The top contest selection for the week is VINC, up +150% of its original price, thanks to the announced … ummm … nothing. I guess it just felt like that. But it was enough to take the top position in the YTD rankings (+200%), aided by the poor performance this week of the previous top dog, PYXS.
On the other hand, IOVA in second, +81% of its price at the start of the contest ($15.77), had a ton of press releases and analyst action this week. On Monday, even without the markets being open, the analyst Zacks Equity Research discussed how IOVA +33% bump in after hours trading was due to the announcement that the FDA had granted an accelerated approval to its TIL based advanced melanoma treatment. On Tuesday, IOVA announced the pricing of a 23 million share public offering at $9.15 a share, just about the previous week’s close. Given the explosive response to the FDA announcement, the opening price for Tuesday of 11.65 means that the offering has a 21% discount right out of the gate, and by the time we get to the closing price for the week, $15.77, the effective discount has doubled to 42%. Then come a host of analyst articles.
Third place for the week, OCUL (+51%), along with personal changes in the BoD and executive positions, on Thursday announced a private placement worth $325M, 32.4 million shares at $7.52 plus 10.8 million immediate exercisable warrants at just under $7.52. Given the jump in share price, closing the week at $9.86 its safe to say shares and warrants all found buyers. This might have something to do with news on Tuesday that AffaMed Therapeutics, a licensee of OCUL technology in ASEAN countries and China, has made a New Drug Application in Singapore, or it might not.
And in fourth, NVAX (+24%) took a big jump up on resolving a dispute between themselves and Gavin (A vaccine Alliance) related to the interpretation of Gavin's 2021 advance purchase agreement for NVAX’s covid-19 vaccine.
CCCC (+18% for the week) rounds out the winners list in fifth. They presented their Q4/Annual earnings report along with an investor’s call laying out near term plans including certain preclinical data and impact on a Phase One ongoing study. In a formal sense their earnings, a drop of 33% from the previous year, did not meet “analyst expectations”, but the market seems to not have cared much about that.
On to the losers: LXRX shaved off -42% of their contest initial value this week, most of it during the first 2 hours of trading at the beginning of the week. Their inclusion in a list of “15 Hot Penny Stocks On the Move” by that renowned Solon, Insider Monkey on Thursday is probably a coincidence.
PYXS (-33%), the third worst return for the week which is part of the reason that it dropped to second in the YTD standings behind VINC. TDOC (-30%) was the subject of an article in Motley Fool to explain its fall. And NERV (-25%) had the release of their Q4/Annual financials to blame for their performance.
In other news, FRLN was purchased by the private company Syncona Portfolio Ltd. for $6.50 a share, a return on investment of 2.04%, closing after the close of the London exchange Monday. As the US exchanges were closed on that day, the cash earnings were redistributed using the portfolio’s remaining selections priced at the close of Tuesday.
The contestants again had a winning week on average, adding $1.9k to the average portfolio, raising the YTD value to $15k, exceeding even the NASDAQ composite’s YTD of $6.6k. But not every contestant. This week ten portfolios gained value, the same number (but not the same portfolios) that are in the black YTD.
The top weekly performing portfolio is BLADERUNNER, +$16k, almost all of which is from their 20% investment in IOVA. This moves them past TOMATO into fourth place YTD (+$36k). RAJU_BIJLEE, in second place for the week, earned +$12k from 10% positions in both top performing IOVA and OCUL. They stay in the third place YTD, but they move closer to BULBAMAN in second. TECHNETIUM in third for the week (+$10k) was able to jump two spots in the YTD rankings from eighth to sixth. DEW_DILIGENCE’s sixth best weekly performance (+$5.5k) puts them back in the YTD rankings at eighth.
ERIKOTTO and BULBAMAN were both in the red for the week, and did not change their YTD positions of first and second, but BULBAMAN’s smaller loss reduced the gap between the two to $15k. ERIKOTTO did include one of the high earning weekly selections OCUL, but also two of the big losers, TNYA and PYXS.
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Recent
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2/16/2024
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2/23/24
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YTD
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12/31/2023
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$1,473.34
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1.4%
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$6,564.83
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^NBI
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$1,805.80
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1.8%
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$2,745.35
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^SPSIBI
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$1,716.98
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1.6%
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$6,074.22
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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VINC
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150.0%
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LXRX
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-41.8%
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VINC
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203.4%
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CNSP
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-78.9%
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IOVA
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81.4%
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TNYA
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-34.0%
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PYXS
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170.0%
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PACB
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-47.9%
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OCUL
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51.1%
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PYXS
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-32.8%
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LRMR
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166.4%
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ITRM
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-35.5%
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NVAX
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23.5%
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TDOC
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-30.3%
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JSPR
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156.5%
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AUPH
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-33.8%
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CCCC
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17.9%
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NERV
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-24.7%
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TARA
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124.5%
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RVNC
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-33.6%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$2,561.91
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$1,887.35
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DART LANZER
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$15,104.87
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$7,874.00
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ARTHUR RADLEY
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (13)
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$16,235.08
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$14,518.09
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$35,939.23 (4)
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1 - ERIKOTTO (1)
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$61,444.64
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——
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$55,370.42
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-$2,581.33 (13)
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2 - RAJU_BIJLEE (6)
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$12,105.12
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$10,388.14
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$37,084.49 (3)
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2 - BULBAMAN (2)
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$46,727.55
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$14,717.09
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$40,653.34
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-$1,194.92 (11)
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3 - TECHNETIUM (15)
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$10,441.06
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$8,724.08
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$22,874.02 (6)
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3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (3)
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$37,084.49
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$24,360.15
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$31,010.28
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$12,105.12 (2)
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4 - TOMATO (2)
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$8,278.30
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$6,561.32
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$32,464.35 (5)
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4 - BLADERUNNER (5)
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$35,939.23
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$25,505.41
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$29,865.01
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$16,235.08 (1)
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5 - TRACE I11 (17)
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$7,862.63
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$6,145.65
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$5,147.56 (10)
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5 - TOMATO (4)
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$32,464.35
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$28,980.29
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$26,390.13
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$8,278.30 (4)
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6 - DEW_DILIGENCE (8)
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$5,517.61
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$3,800.62
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$11,766.27 (8)
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6 - TECHNETIUM (8)
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$22,874.02
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$38,570.62
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$16,799.80
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$10,441.06 (3)
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7 - JR_95 (7)
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$3,079.12
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$1,362.14
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$19,303.66 (7)
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7 - JR_95 (6)
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$19,303.66
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$42,140.98
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$13,229.44
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$3,079.12 (7)
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8 - NOTABOT (10)
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$2,408.47
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$691.49
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-$491.37 (12)
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8 - DEW_DILIGENCE (9)
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$11,766.27
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$49,678.37
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$5,692.05
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$5,517.61 (6)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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BCAB
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10.00%
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7.4% | 0.8%
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$81.30
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$894.31
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9.9%
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GLTO
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10.00%
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5.7% | -7.8%
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-$783.33
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-$522.22
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10.8%
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CRDF
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20.00%
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16.6% | 12.8%
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$2,567.57
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-$810.81
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4.4%
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INSM
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10.00%
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5.5% | -12.0%
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-$1,197.16
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-$719.59
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11.4%
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CRIS
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10.00%
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5.5% | -25.4%
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-$2,541.18
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-$768.63
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13.4%
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LIFE
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15.00%
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12.6% | 35.5%
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$5,319.15
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-$1,170.21
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4.9%
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GLYC
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10.00%
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9.0% | 22.9%
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$2,288.14
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-$1,355.93
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8.1%
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LRMR
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15.00%
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24.7% | 166.4%
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$24,956.04
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-$2,175.82
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2.5%
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IMMP
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10.00%
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6.9% | -6.7%
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-$666.67
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-$250.00
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10.7%
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OCUL
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15.00%
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20.5% | 121.1%
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$18,161.43
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$7,668.16
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3.0%
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IOVA
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20.00%
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28.5% | 94.0%
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$18,794.59
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$16,285.36
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2.6%
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PYXS
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5.00%
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8.4% | 170.0%
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$8,500.00
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-$1,638.89
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7.4%
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JSPR
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10.00%
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18.9% | 156.5%
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$15,652.72
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$1,647.66
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3.9%
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SERA
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5.00%
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4.4% | 41.6%
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$2,081.94
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-$1,036.79
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14.1%
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REPL
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10.00%
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7.2% | -2.4%
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-$237.25
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$593.12
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10.2%
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TNYA
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10.00%
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10.0% | 61.1%
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$6,111.11
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-$3,395.06
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6.2%
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TPST
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15.00%
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8.2% | -11.4%
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-$1,704.55
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$409.09
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7.5%
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