Roger, I enjoy following the thread and agree with many of your observations about the market. I recently had an experience which I mentioned on another thread, but thought it would be appropriate to relay it here as well. Recently, while on vacation in New Mexico, I pulled up to a tiny roadside outpost about 100 miles from the nearest town...literally in the middle of nowhere. The place was dilapidated, and I was sure I wasn't going to be able to find the cup of coffee I was looking for. I walked into the place and found an 80 year-old Indian woman, whose main business seemed to be peddling tribal artifacts to any tourists who stopped by. There was almost nothing in the place. There was, however, a working color television, and that elderly Indian woman was intently watching a live report from the floor of the NYSE on CNBC. I asked her if she followed the market, and she smiled and opened a drawer packed with brokerage and mutual fund statements. She explained that she had 9 mutual funds, and had recently bought a satellite dish (which was indeed outside) so she could follow the action every day, minute by minute. She said that she used to drive an hour every few days to go to an Indian casino, but gave it up when she discovered the stock market. For some reason, that last revelation was less than comforting to me.
Reflecting on the experience afterwards, I decided that when the stock market becomes an integral part of the lives of little old Indian women at trading posts in the middle of New Mexico, we are either at the dawn of what will be a bear-crushing surge to Dow 20,000, or at the precipice of a financial apocalypse that make 1929 and 1987 look walks in the park. The optimist in me favors the former, while the contrarian in me can't help but respect the possibility of the latter. |
