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no compelling reason to own semi companies till minimun this summer, business is getting worse than expected ie, asia is starting to hit the bottom line.the problem with klic and other semi companies forecastimg and markets are really unpredicatable. management really has no clue what will happen in the short term. look at amat, in november amat said asia had no effect on business at the time, in feb quarter amat said asia will reduce eps from 48 cents to 35cents. also, their book to bill will not be over 1 till minumum third quarter. this is a suckers rally, eps are coming down even more, remember klic hit 10 in 1996 and lost a lot of money. granted, i think the company is in 10X better shape but with semi's the rule of thumb is do not pay up when visibility is unclear. when semi's say unclear=problems. i see klic going back to 18-20, amat.27-30, their is no fundamental reason to bid these stocks up short term, its a suckers rally. if your a long term player i think 1999 will be a great year for all semi's. short term will be rocky and you will see alot preannouncements coming up . |
