Stu-
I based my sell point on a resistance area, combined with the fact that it was a 65+% gain in a few weeks. I still own more shares than I did when SMTC peaked. I am fully aware of the possibility that SMTC might post $0.33 tomorrow, and the stock might jump up to $36. That's fine, because I have decided to take some profits, on several stocks that have had good run-ups. I made the mistake of not doing this before with SMTC. Because I am aware of the advantage of buying on corrections and selling on rallies/peaks, I intend to do so. I won't make any money if I just buy more and never sell anything. By setting price targets, I remove a lot of emotion from my decision. But rather than make the common mistake of selling half (or all) of my position (many people do this, and eventually regret it), I sell only a small fraction. I sold about 3% of my THQI stock on the last day of 1997, but I'm still very bullish on THQI. SMTC has run-up very quickly, most likely in anticipation of good earnings. If earnings don't exceed $0.31, I suspect the stock will not rally on the news. I still think that the stock will perform well in 1998 (price target of $42), but I need to see evidence of strong fundamentals before I raise my estimates or targets on SMTC. We'll talk tomorrow.
Todd |
