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WSJ Opinion -- Electric Cars Emit More Particulate Pollution ........................................................
WSJ
March 3, 2024
OPINION
COMMENTARY
Electric Cars Emit More Particulate Pollution
They have greater tire wear, the source of most particulate matter. California is trying to conceal that fact.
By Michael Buschbacher and Taylor Myers
The Biden administration is reviewing California’s plan to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. To get federal approval, California claims it “needs” this ban to prevent harm to public health from particulate matter -- airborne particles like dust, dirt and soot. But banning gasoline cars would do little to reduce particulate emissions, and it could even increase them.
That’s because new gasoline cars are very clean. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, cars emit only about 1% of all direct fine particulate matter in California, and most of those emissions come from older models. The newer gasoline cars that California wants to ban will often have particulate filters that reduce emissions to below one 1/1,000th of a gram per mile driven.
Where do most particulate emissions attributed to cars come from? California speaks as if their primary source is the tailpipe. That was true in the past. But today most vehicle-related particulate matter comes from tire wear. Cars are heavy, and as their tires rub against the road, they degrade and release tiny, often toxic particles. According to measurements by an emission-analytics firm, in gasoline cars equipped with a particle filter, airborne tire-wear emissions are more than 400 times as great as direct exhaust particulate emissions.
California calls electric cars “zero emissions vehicles” because they don’t have tailpipes. That is deceptive. Generating the electricity that powers those cars creates particulate pollution, and of course electric cars still use tires, which are made from petroleum. Electric cars weigh far more than gasoline-powered ones, so their tires degrade faster, as electric car buyers are learning. The same analytics firm cited earlier compared two cars -- a plug-in electric and a hybrid. The electric car weighed about one-third more than the hybrid and emitted roughly one-quarter more particulate matter because of tire wear. Total direct emissions went up, not down, when the electric car was driven.
But when California’s air agency analyzed the effects of its ban, it used a model that assumes both kinds of cars have the same tire wear. When the public pointed out the error, the agency doubled down, claiming it would be “speculative” to assume that electric cars will continue to be heavier than gasoline cars. The agency mused that in the future automakers could probably “offset” the weight of heavy batteries with unspecified “weight reduction in other components or the vehicle body.”
California’s bureaucrats have it backward. What’s “speculative” is assuming that electric cars will soon weigh the same as the gasoline cars they replace. Electric cars are 15% to 30% heavier because batteries store far less energy per pound than liquid fuels. While weight differences between electric and gasoline cars have remained roughly constant over the past decade, the only reasonable prediction of trends is for electric cars to get heavier as manufacturers increase battery size to boost range.
Electric car supporters may argue that gasoline cars also contribute to particle pollution by emitting nitrogen oxides, which can turn into particles. But by California’s estimate, most of the predicted decrease in particle concentrations results from its false assumption that electric cars will substantially reduce direct emissions of particulates, not nitrogen dioxide.
Before California can set any emissions standards for cars, it needs the EPA’s approval. But don’t hold your breath expecting scientific integrity. The EPA’s own emissions model falsely “applies the same tire wear emission rate for all vehicle fuel types (gasoline, diesel, flex-fuel, CNG or electric),” completely ignoring the differences in weight.
Why are California and the EPA so eager to push electric cars when they will increase what EPA administrator Michael Regan calls “one of the most dangerous forms of air pollution”? That’s a good question. Perhaps someone should ask them under oath.
Mr. Buschbacher is a partner at the law firm Boyden Gray PLLC. He served in the Justice Department’s Environment Division (2020-21). Mr. Myers is a research fellow at Boyden Gray and holds a doctorate in mechanical engineering.
Copyright © 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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