SPX - The BIG Picture. The wave count delivered here last June has largely remained intact, and it appears that C of B is now complete, with the larger degree C wave down now underway. One error I made last year was stating that 5165 would be the ceiling for C of B based on the size of A of B. That number was obviously exceeded by 24 points and was a result of B of B being much larger than A of B, as well as C of B not beginning til the late October low of '23. The ACTUAL ceiling for C of B was around 5765 (2X larger than the greater of the length of A or B). Fortunately for the bears, it appears that possibility has dissolved into the mindlessness of JB. The importance of the death of JR just 9 days prior to the final high should probably not be overlooked either.
The max size of C down is now in stone assuming no higher highs are made. C may be no more than 2X the size of B, which yields 1796 as the maximum depth... bad news for those still short from pre-Trump election win days who were hoping to get out even. Since the A wave into the 7/14/22 low was drawn out and relatively shallow, I would expect this C wave to be quick and "crashy." It would make sense from a max pain standpoint that TPTB allow the crash to occur BEFORE really bad economic/earnings/geopolitical news begins to materialize, so that it is bought ALL THE WAY DOWN. Living in a Casino town, trust me... I know not only how "The House" thinks, but how losing streaks materialize and blow-up riverboat gamblers (who tend to double down into losses) in a small fraction of the time it took to build their bankroll. With that said, a PERFECT blind-side crash would begin NOW, and end BEFORE JULY earnings are reported.
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