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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 243.79+2.3%Jan 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (1224)2/18/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Frac  Read Replies (1) of 12623
 
The problem with stocks/companies like CIEN is that they trade at 40X earning because they are expected to grow at a 40% growth in sales/earnings far into the future. When they are no longer developing "NEW" & Competitive products that can be projected as Ascendant Technology for the next few years, they become vulnerable. They will not go out of business over the next few years, but their PE can slide in the face of slower earnings growth and the price slips away. In IBD, CIEN went from and "A:" to a "D" in the Accum/Dist category from Jan to now. The stock only slipped from 60 to 50. Somebody did a great sale. If you recall, Gilder knocked ASND for the same reason a year or so ago. The stock was about 56, ran to 70, then slipped to under 20 with rising earnings. Also, when the momentum buyers become sellers they are worse than any LU or CSCO.A minute and a half and the stock is down 30%.CIEN trades it's entire cap. every 5 to 10 days. THINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN. Watch you back
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