Actually, There is some news of sorts. CNBC just mention LLY again. They were the second most active yesterday and are second in volume again this morning. Price is heading south on disappointing Evista (Raloxifene) sales for osteoporosis.
This of course is good news for LGND. Before Evista approval, CNBC (and others), ran several stories on aging pipelines of the big boys and a need for blockbusters to replace the current blockbusters when they go off patent. Although most Pharmas have many drugs that generate income, most are heavily dependent a just a few to provide most of the profit. LLY has Prozac and one other big one, both of which go off patent in 2002 or 2003. To move a drug into the "blockbuster" category can take several years after approval, and getting approval can take up to 10 years.
The earlier CNBC stories mentioned Evista as a drug that would move into the "blockbuster" category in the early 21st century. Initial sales have been disappointing (about 1/3 of Fosamax at a similar time point after approval) and the stock has taken a hit.
Many saw LLY's $200 million deal with LGND as a means to generate blockbusters for sale next century. At the top of the list is Targretin for diabetes, but the rexinoids have many metabolic disease applications. As has been shown in several animal models, Rexinoids synergize with PPAR gamma to overcome insulin resistance, the underlying cause of diabetes. However, they also pair up with PPAR alpha for energy metabolism and Vitamin D receptors (for breast cancer?).
In the breast cancer area, Targretin has been shown to synergize with Tamoxifen (a SERM) for treatement of established tumors and has been show to be as effective as Tamoxifen for the prevention of breast cancer (without the unwanted side effect of uterine tissue stimulation).
Evista is a SERM and part of LGND's research program with LLY that targets combination therapy (SERMs with Rexinoids). However, LGND also has targeted SERMs with PFE (Droloxifene and CP-366,156) as well as AHP (TSE424) and it seems likely that synergy with Tamoxifen could translate into synergy with any or all of the above SERMs.
I think that it will become increasingly clear that combination therapy will be the future treatment modality choice and LGND's basic research program, which targets about 100 receptors, will provide a wealth of drugs both short and long term.
LGND says that they have the best pipeline in the industry, and I suspect that soon the street will realize this. The big pharmas already have a good idea, which is why LGND has alliances with PFE, GLX, AGN, ABT, AHP, SBH, Sankyo, and LLY, and more is expected soon. |
