Steve: Again, sorry for the delay, but my business can carry me away at strange hours of the night and day,...factor in som esleep and God know's when i will get back here sometimes...hence I'm on the line at whatever time it is now EST.
Yes, your observation concerning interest rates and currency values are correct. That is, a higher rate will attract "value to the currency, while declining rates generally speaking, will retard the same. However, I find the C$ a little unique in this formula. the C$ fell dramatically when the national debt clearly outweighed the governemnt's desire or ability to reverse the process. The bottom point of this collective thinking was apparent when Mulroony bailed out and left Kim Campbell to hang....Jean Cretien being the benificiary of the public's ill will. This was confirmed when Harris was elected to Premier of Ontario and it was repeted in the west. The long and short of this is that power has moved decidedly to the Provences and these guys are cutting big time.
While not being a big player in the game of currency exchange, the C$ does not move with great allacrity, save the Quebec vote. Nonetheless, they are on an upswing and any play I do here is in terms of a 3-5 month position trade. I keep one account solely for these types of trades. I maintain a buy at my previously mentioned level, as I believe some profit takers will step in and drive the price back down breifly. I operate a great deal on "gut" feelings with the C$.
I am, nonetheless, intrigued by your std.dev. method of approaching such a market. Is this of your own design?....or a modification of others? Many long term traders, who I follow, keep talking about an $.80 dollar by next June. While I'd like to see it, I'm only looking for , as I said earlier, a couple of cents over the next 60-90 days. Beats a bank CD and hell, this is a lot more fun.
Do you approach other trades with tthe same statistical approach? I trade bonds frequntly and have been doing well, but again this is strictly a game of anticipating market moves based on news of econ data. I realize that this may sound horribly sophmoric, but I tend to listen to my gut most of the time. After some stat. null hypthoses on systems, I grow less sanguine about charting programs. By the by, have you ever check out Donavan Ward's trading system on his home page? I have to admit it, the guy is making money. If you haven't, give a yell and I'll post his address. REGARDS...Jeffrey |
