Still think you're early. There's plenty of value in this market so it doesn't make sense to not be invested. Ok, so you're not buying wonderful companies... small caps, commodity-based businesses, certain cyclicals have all been left behind.
And if I had to bet, I'd bet (w/out putting money on it!) we're going higher. Hype is only growing and there seems to be enough momentum - and liquidity - to fuel this market.
As a small investor, I feel you always ought to be invested. If cash isn't being put to work, it's being eaten away by inflation - put in a savings account or bonds at the very least. A small cash reserve "just in case" makes more sense if you're a fund manager. Not as a retail investor (unless you're operating with millions of dollars!).
If the stock market were to crash over the near-term, I'd utilise my savings to increase my exposure. To me, if you've set aside money to invest and you're not using it, why set it aside to begin with?
Maybe tech stocks and certain industrials are overvalued. No, they definitely are. But it's so easy avoid them and find value! Just yesterday I found a $10m market cap stock with a healthy balance sheet, recently turned profitable and probably trading below liquidation value. Problem is, what causes the stock to go up? Volume is dead! And the company is diluting shareholders through unfair SBC policies. The result is a stock that is stuck. I moved on (ARTW is the ticker if you're interested). Small retail investors don't have the power to influence management. A small HF otoh...
All of that said, I wonder how many "value" investors are actually beating the market these days? I'm certainly not. Makes me wonder if it is just smarter to throw in the towel and just buy indices over time. It's not just the opportunity cost of returns - the time could be spent elsewhere.
The only obvious catalyst in which I see this market falling is another rate hike. Other than that, I can't see anything sparking a massive sell-off. Maybe massive capital raises from big tech (in the form of shares/converts offerings) could spark revalutions and result in indices falling, but investors appetites seem to be never-ending. DJT is a proof of that.
I do also fear inflation, so I hold stocks that benefit from inflation as a hedge. Maybe it's already here? There are potential signs in the bond and commodity markets.
Overall, though, I'm not really that bearish. Yes, this market and enthusiasm isn't sustainable, but the excess remains highly concentrated in certain areas of the market. Until it spreads everywhere, its not my problem. More likely that only those names get hit if a correction occurs soon. If I'm wrong and everything crashes, well, that's ok, too. I wouldn't mind a crash. |
